189 
AXPZ20 KNHC 260723
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Feb 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Pacific Swell Event: A set of northerly swell is 
decaying, however seas of 12 to 14 ft are covering the waters 
from 23N to 30N between 119W and 134W per recent altimeter data,
with wave periods of 12 to 14 seconds. Seas will decay to less 
than 12 ft later this morning. Looking ahead, another set of 
northerly swell with seas of 12 ft or greater may push south of 
30N on Tue through the mid-week. Please read the latest High 
Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml 
for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough is analyzed from the Pacific coast of Colombia
near 06N77.5W to 06N90W. The ITCZ extends from 06N90W to 03N103W
to 04N120W to beyond 02N140W. A second ITCZ extends from south of
the Galapagos Islands through 03.4S101W to 00N106W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 06N 
between 96W and 101W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
01S to 03.4S between 93W and 97W, from 04N to 06.5N between 104W
and 108W, and from 02N to 05N between 117W and 120W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details 
on an ongoing northerly swell event.

A cold front extends from SW Arizona to across the northern Gulf
of California and Baja California Norte to southwest of Punta
Eugenia. Fresh to strong W-NW winds behind the front are
spreading across the waters north of Punta Eugenia, and ahead of
the front in the northern Gulf of California where seas are 4 to
6 ft. Seas are 7 to 12 ft in NW swell offshore Baja California 
Norte, and 5 to 8 ft offshore Baja California Sur. Winds are 
moderate or weaker elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico
under a weak ridge of high pressure ahead of the front, except 
for fresh to strong NW-N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and
locally fresh winds near Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 3 to 6 ft in 
mainly NW swell across the remainder of the waters, except mixed 
with southerly swell offshore Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, the cold front will continue moving southeast
today while weakening. Fresh to strong winds will prevail in the
northern Gulf of California and offshore Baja California Norte 
through today. Large NW swell across the waters off Baja 
California will continue through tonight, bringing rough seas to
the Baja California offshore waters. The swell will decay Mon 
and Mon night. High pressure will build in the wake of the front 
setting up moderate to fresh, locally strong, winds from near 
Cabo Corrientes, northwestward to offshore Baja California, and 
in the southern Gulf of California for the early part of the 
week. The next cold front will arrive Wed night through Thu 
night bringing fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of California 
and offshore Baja California, spreading southward through the 
end of the week. A new set of large NW swell will accompany the 
front offshore Baja California. Fresh to strong NW winds will 
pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds are noted offshore 
Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo and downstream the Gulf 
of Papagayo per an earlier ASCAT scatterometer pass. Seas to 8 
ft prevail with the strongest winds. Moderate to fresh winds 
prevail in the Gulf of Panama with 4 to 6 ft seas. Winds are 
moderate or weaker elsewhere with seas of 3 to 5 ft in S to SW 
swell.

For the forecast, winds offshore Nicaragua including the Gulf of
Papagayo will pulse to fresh to strong through the week, with
seas to around 7 ft. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will pulse
in the Gulf of Panama through the week. Winds will be moderate 
or weaker with slight to moderate seas elsewhere through the 
forecast period.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details 
on an ongoing northerly swell event.

A cold front is analyzed from Baja California near Punta Eugenia
at 28.5N114W to 21.5N125W to 22N135W. Moderate to fresh winds are
following the front over the open waters. A weak surface trough 
is analyzed south of the front from 21N119W to 14N125W. Weak
ridging prevails elsewhere north of the ITCZ. The resultant
pressure gradient is supporting fresh to locally strong winds on
either side of the trough between 114W and 131W, with moderate to
fresh trades elsewhere north of about 05N and west of 120W. Winds
are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas of 8 ft or greater in
northerly swell covers the waters north of 03N and west of 110W.
Seas are 5 to 7 ft elsewhere, except 4 to 6 ft south of the 
Equator, and north of the Equator east of 100W.

For the forecast, the cold front will gradually dissipate through
this evening, while another cold front drops south of 30N tonight
while weakening. The moderate to fresh trades, locally strong, 
will persist across the same area through the early part of the 
week as the trough drifts west-southwest. An expanding area of 
fresh to strong trades will occur Mon night through mid-week as 
the pressure gradient tightens. The northerly swell will persist 
today, decaying thereafter until a reinforcing set arrives Tue 
through mid-week.

$$
Lewitsky