000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252104 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Feb 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Pacific Swell Event: A set of long period northerly swell continues to support seas of 8 to 16 ft, highest near 29N127W, with the extent of seas of 8 ft or greater reaching from north of 06N and west of 110W, and the extend of seas of 12 ft or greater reaching from north of 25N between 120W and 140W. Wave periods are 13 to 15 seconds. This swell will continue to spread southward, with a reinforcing set of northerly swell associated with a cold front moving through tonight. Seas in excess of 12 ft will reach all the way to near 23N before decaying through early next week. Looking ahead, another set of northerly swell with seas of 12 ft or greater may push south of 30N on Tue through the middle of next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on this event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 05N90W to 01S140W. A secondary ITCZ is analyzed from 02S86W to 04S99W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the secondary ITCZ. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on an ongoing northerly swell event. A strong cold front is currently approaching Baja California Norte. Fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front are moving into the outer offshores from Punta Eugenia northward. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico under a weak ridge of high pressure ahead of the front, except for strong to near-gale SW winds in the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front. Seas of 7 to 13 ft in NW swell are offshore Baja California, and 4 to 7 ft primarily in NW swell elsewhere, except mixed with southerly swell offshore Tehuantepec. For the forecast, the cold front will continue moving east over Baja California Norte, then weakening. Fresh to strong SW winds will prevail in the northern Gulf of California through Sun, with seas building to around 7 ft tonight as the front approaches. Large NW swell across the waters off Baja California will continue through the weekend, reinforced by the NW swell associated with the cold front, bringing rough seas to the Baja California offshore waters through Sun. The swell will decay thereafter, then another large set will arrive by Tue night with the next frontal system. This front will also bring fresh to strong winds both ahead and behind it offshore Punta Eugenia northward. Fresh to strong winds will develop offshore Baja California and in the northern Gulf of California mid-week. Fresh to strong NW winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds are noted offshore Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Seas to 8 ft prevail with the strongest winds. Moderate to fresh winds prevail in the Gulf of Panama with 4 to 6 ft seas. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with seas of 3 to 5 ft in S to SW swell. For the forecast, winds offshore Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo will pulse to near-gale during the evenings and early morning hours through the weekend. Seas will peak to 8 ft during the strongest winds. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama through early next week. Winds will be moderate or weaker with slight to moderate seas elsewhere through the forecast period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on an ongoing northerly swell event. A cold front is analyzed from 30N117W to 24N126W to 24N140W. Fresh to strong winds are noted on either side of the front, north of 27N between 115W and 130W. Otherwise, surface ridging extending from high pressure centered well northwest of the area covers the remainder of the waters between the ITCZ and the front. The resultant pressure gradient is supporting moderate to fresh trades from around 08N to 18N. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Other than the large swell mentioned above, seas are 7 to 11 ft across the area of fresh to strong trades, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere, except 4 to 6 ft east of 110W. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will accompany the cold front on either side of it through tonight. The moderate to fresh trades will persist across the same area through the weekend and into early next week, while the large northerly swell mentioned above stretches seas of 8 ft or greater across the waters north of 02N and west of 113W by early Sun, then decaying into early next week until a reinforcing set arrives Mon night through the middle of next week. The area of moderate to fresh trades will increase to fresh to strong Mon night through the middle of next week as the pressure gradient tightens. $$ ERA