000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251536
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Feb 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Pacific Swell Event: A set of long period northerly 
swell continues to support seas of 8 to 18 ft, highest near 
30N130W, with the extent of seas of 8 ft or greater reaching from
north of around 06N and west of 110W, and the extend of seas of 
12 ft or greater reaching from north of 26N between 120W and 
140W. Wave periods are 13 to 15 seconds. This swell will continue
to spread southward, with a reinforcing set of northerly swell 
associated with a cold front moving through tonight. Seas in 
excess of 12 ft will reach all the way to near 23N before 
decaying through the remainder of the weekend and into early next
week. Looking ahead, another set of northerly swell with seas of
12 ft or greater may push south of 30N by early Tue through the 
middle of next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information on this event.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from the Pacific coast of Colombia near
07N78W to 06N89W. The ITCZ extends from 06N89W to 00N140W. A
secondary ITCZ is analyzed from 02S85W to 04S99W. Scattered 
moderate convection along the secondary ITCZ. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details 
on an ongoing northerly swell event.

A strong cold front is moving into southern California and
approaching Baja California Norte. Associated fresh to near 
gale-force southerly winds ahead of the front are moving into the
outer offshores from Punta Eugenia northward, with near gale-
force winds near the Channel Islands. Winds are moderate or 
weaker elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico under a 
weak ridge of high pressure ahead of the front, except locally 
fresh in the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front. Seas
of 6 to 12 ft in NW swell are offshore Baja California, and 3 to
6 ft primarily in NW swell elsewhere, except mixed with 
southerly swell offshore Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SW winds will prevail in the 
northern Gulf of California through Sun, with seas building to 
around 6 by tonight. Large NW swell across the waters off Baja 
California will continue today, being reinforced by another set 
of NW swell associated with the cold front, bringing rough seas 
to the Baja California offshore waters through Sun. The swell 
will decay thereafter with the possibility of another large set 
arriving by Tue night with another frontal system. The front will
also bring fresh to strong winds both ahead and behind it 
offshore Punta Eugenia northward. Moderate to fresh winds, 
locally strong, will develop offshore Baja California and in the 
northern Gulf of California mid-week. Meanwhile, winds will pulse
to moderate to fresh, locally strong, in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
through Sun morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds are noted offshore 
Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo and downstream the Gulf 
of Papagayo. Seas to 9 ft prevail with the strongest winds. 
Moderate to fresh winds prevail in the Gulf of Panama with 4 to 
6 ft seas. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with seas of 3 
to 5 ft in S to SW swell.

For the forecast, winds offshore Nicaragua including the Gulf of
Papagayo will pulse to strong to near gale-force during the
evenings and early morning hours through the weekend, then fresh
to strong thereafter. Seas will reach to 8 ft during the 
strongest winds. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are expected in 
the Gulf of Panama through early next week. Winds will be 
moderate or weaker with slight to moderate seas elsewhere through
the forecast period.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details 
on an ongoing northerly swell event.

A cold front is pushing south of 30N, extending from 30N119W to
24N130W to 25N138W. Fresh to strong winds are found on either 
side of the front, roughly north of 27N between 118W and 135W. 
Otherwise, surface ridging extending from high pressure centered 
well northwest of the area covers the remainder of the waters 
between the ITCZ and the cold front. The resultant pressure 
gradient is supporting moderate to fresh trades from around 07N 
to 20N. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Other than the 
large swell mentioned above, seas are 7 to 11 ft across the area 
of fresh to strong trades, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere, except 4 to 6
ft east of 105W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will accompany the cold
front on either side of it north of 25N and east of 135W through
tonight. The moderate to fresh trades will persist across the 
same area through the weekend and into early next week, while 
the large northerly swell mentioned above stretches seas of 8 ft 
or greater across the waters north of 03N and west of 113W by 
early Sun, then decaying into early next week until a reinforcing
set arrives Mon night through the middle of next week. The area 
of moderate to fresh trades will increase to fresh to strong Mon 
night through the middle of next week as the pressure gradient 
tightens.

$$
ERA