000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240209 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Feb 24 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0120 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Pacific Swell Event: A set of long period northerly swell continues to support seas of 8 to 16 ft, highest along 30N, north of about 16N and west of 112W. Wave periods are 15 to 17 seconds. This swell event will continue to spread southward through Fri, with a reinforcing set of northerly swell associated with a developing and arriving cold front Fri night through Sat. Seas in excess of 12 ft will reach all the way to 22N by Sat night before decaying through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on this event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the border of Colombia and Panama near 07N78W to 02N100W. The ITCZ extends from 02N100W to along the Equator between 106W and 131W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 06N between 91W and 95W, from 05N to 08N between 115W and 123W, and from 03N to 06N between 135W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on an ongoing northerly swell event. A surface trough extends from near the border of Arizona and California to across Baja California Norte to near 25.5N123W. Fresh to locally strong winds and seas to 5 ft are across the northern Gulf of California ahead of the trough. Seas are 1 to 3 ft across the remainder of the Gulf of California. A ridge extends south-southeast of the trough through 25.5N119W to across the offshore waters terminating near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are across the remainder of the offshore waters, except fresh to locally strong near Cabo Corrientes due to a locally tight pressure gradient between the ridge and 1007 mb low pressure over central Mexico. Seas of 7 to 13 ft in NW swell are offshore Baja California, and 3 to 5 ft primarily in NW swell elsewhere, except mixed with SE swell offshore Tehuantepec. For the forecast, fresh to strong SW winds will continue across the northern Gulf of California through tonight. Fresh to strong SW winds will develop again in the northern Gulf of California Sat morning through Sun. NW swell across the waters off Baja California will continue through Fri night. Another swell event bringing rough seas will affect the Baja California offshore waters late Fri night through Sun as a cold front moves across the area. The front will bring fresh to strong winds both ahead of and behind it offshore Punta Eugenia northward. The swell will decay thereafter with the possibility of another large set arriving Tue night. Winds will pulse to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat morning through Sun morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas to 7 ft are noted over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo, extending westward to near 93W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail in the Gulf of Panama with 3 to 5 ft seas. Mainly light to gentle variable winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in SW swell are elsewhere. For the forecast, winds offshore Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo will pulse to strong to near gale-force during the evenings and early morning hours through Sun morning, then fresh to strong thereafter. Seas will build to around 8 ft during the strongest winds. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama, briefly increasing to fresh to locally strong speeds Fri night and Sat evening. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere through the forecast period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on an ongoing northerly swell event. A surface trough is analyzed north of the ITCZ from 17N118W to 08N121W. Otherwise, surface ridging extending from a 1039 mb high centered well northwest of the area covers the remainder of the waters north of the ITCZ. The resultant pressure gradient is supporting moderate to fresh trades from 07N to 21N west of the surface trough. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Other than the large swell mentioned above, seas are 6 to 9 ft across the area of fresh to strong trades, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere, except 4 to 6 ft east of 105W. For the forecast, a cold front will bring fresh to strong winds on either side of it north of 27N and east of 135W Fri through Sat. The moderate to fresh trades will persist across the same area through the upcoming weekend and into early next week, while the large northerly swell mentioned above stretches seas of 8 ft or greater across the waters north of 03N and west of 115W by early Sun, then decaying into early next week until a reinforcing set arrives Mon night. The area of moderate to fresh trades will increase to fresh to strong Mon night through Tue night as the pressure gradient tightens. $$ Lewitsky