000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222153 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Feb 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning: Strong to gale force winds continue over portions of the northern Gulf of California N of 30N along with seas to 8 ft. These winds will diminish below gale force early this evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on this event. Eastern Pacific Swell Event: A cold front extending from the northern Gulf of California SW to Sebastian Vizcaino Bay is followed by fresh to strong N to NW winds and is supporting seas of 8 to 16 ft seas in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia. These seas also cover the waters N of 26N E of 134W. This swell event will continue to spread southward into Thu, with seas of 8 to 13 ft N of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas of 12 ft or higher will subside Fri afternoon. However, another swell event, with seas in excess of 12 ft will follow a new cold front that will reach the Baja California Norte offshore waters on Fri night. These seas are forecast to cover the waters N of 20N and E of 136W before subsiding late Sun morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on this event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 04N90W to 01N105W. The ITCZ continues from 01N105W to 04N123W to 03N140W. A secondary ITCZ extends from 04S84W to 04S97W. Scattered moderate convection from 03S to 09S between 84W and 94W, from 00N to 09N between 89W and 97W, and from 02N to 06N between 111W and 122W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the northern Gulf of California through early this evening. Two swell events will be affecting the offshore waters of Baja California through Sun night. Please, see the Special Features section above for more details on these two events. Aside from the small area of gale winds over the northern California, the remainder of the gulf is under the influence of light to gentle variable winds and seas to 3 ft. Fresh to strong NW winds and seas higher than 12 ft follow a cold front that extends from the northern Gulf of California SW to Sebastian Vizcaino Bay. Moderate to fresh N to NW winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are ahead of this front to Punta Prieta. Light to gentle variable winds are in the remainder of Baja California, southern and SW Mexico offshore waters, except for moderate to fresh NW winds in the Jalisco coastal waters. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in southern and SW Mexico and 5 to 7 ft across the Baja California Sur offshore waters. For the forecast, gales in the northern Gulf of California will end early this evening, but fresh to strong SW winds will continue across the northern gulf through Thu night. NW swell will continue to propagate into the waters off Baja California tonight, with seas in excess of 8 ft continuing through Fri night. However, another swell event, with seas of 8 to 13 ft will affect the Baja California offshore waters Fri night through Sun morning as a new cold front moves across the area. Fresh to strong SW winds will develop again in the northern Gulf of California Fri night through Sun morning. Moderate to fresh NW winds will continue across the southern half of the gulf and the entrance of the gulf through the remainder of the forecast period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Earlier scatterometer data show moderate to fresh NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo, extending downwind to El Salvador and Guatemala offshore waters. Recent altimeter data show seas of 8 to 9 ft in that same region. Moderate to fresh N winds were also captured by scatterometer data in the Gulf of Panama, including the Azuero Peninsula where altimeter data show seas to 5 ft. Elsewhere light and variable winds prevail with seas to 5 ft in mixed N and S swell. For the forecast, strong to near-gale force NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will persist through Mon when winds will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds. Seas are forecast to be 8 to 9 ft over the weekend as winds increase to near gale-force mainly at night. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama, increasing to fresh to strong speeds Fri night. Afterward, winds will diminish to moderate to fresh and prevail trough the remainder forecast period. Mainly light to gentle variable winds will dominate elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please, see the Special Features section above for more details on an ongoing and an upcoming swell event. Scatterometer data show fresh to strong N to NE winds associated with a broad surface ridge that covers the open waters N of 12N and W of 107W. Altimeter data captured seas of 8 to 10 ft W of 130W, however seas are higher N of 23N and E of 130W due to an ongoing swell event. North of the ITCZ to 12N and W of 120W, winds are moderate to fresh with seas to 9 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 6-7 ft primarily in northerly swell. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E trade winds are forecast to persist over the west-central waters through the week, with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range. Large northerly swell across the northern waters producing seas in excess of 12 ft will impact much of the waters north of 20N through Fri. A new set of long period swell will start affecting the northern waters Fri night before subsiding on Sun. $$ Ramos