000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222056
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Feb 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of California Gale Warning: Strong to gale force winds
continue over portions of the northern Gulf of California N of 
30N along with seas to 8 ft. These winds will diminish below 
gale force early this evening. Please read the latest High Seas 
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for 
more information on this event.

Eastern Pacific Swell Event:
  
A cold front extending from the northern Gulf of California SW 
to Sebastian Vizcaino Bay is followed by fresh to strong N to NW
winds and is supporting seas of 8 to 16 ft seas in NW swell N of
Punta Eugenia. These seas also cover the waters N of 26N E of 
134W. This swell event will continue to spread southward into 
Thu, with seas of 8 to 13 ft N of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas of 12 ft 
or higher will subside Fri afternoon. However, another swell 
event, with seas in excess of 12 ft will follow a new cold front 
that will reach the Baja California Norte offshore waters on Fri 
night. These seas are forecast to cover the waters N of 20N and 
E of 136W before subsiding late Sun morning. Please read the 
latest High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information on this event.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 04N90W to 01N105W. The 
ITCZ continues from 01N105W to 04N123W to 03N140W. A secondary 
ITCZ extends from 04S84W to 04S97W. Scattered moderate 
convection from 03S to 09S between 84W and 94W, from 00N to 09N 
between 89W and 97W, and from 02N to 06N between 111W and 122W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning remains in effect for the northern Gulf of 
California through early this evening. Two swell events will be
affecting the offshore waters of Baja California through Sun
night. Please, see the Special Features section above for more 
details on these two events.

Aside from the small area of gale winds over the northern 
California, the remainder gulf is under the influence of light to
gentle variable winds and seas to 3 ft. Fresh to strong NW winds
and seas higher than 12 ft follow a cold front that extends from
the northern Gulf of California SW to Sebastian Vizcaino Bay.
Moderate to fresh N to NW winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are ahead
of this front to Punta Prieta. Light to gentle variable winds are
in the remainder Baja California, southern and SW Mexico offshore
waters, except for moderate to fresh NW winds in the Jalisco
coastal waters. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in southern and SW Mexico and
5 to 7 ft across the Baja California Sur offshore waters. 

For the forecast, gales in the northern Gulf of California will
end by this evening. A set of NW swell will continue to propagate
into the waters off Baja California today, with seas in excess 
of 12 ft impacting much of the waters north of 26N through the 
end of the week. Looking ahead, another swell event, with seas in
excess of 12 ft, is expected N of Punta Eugenia during the 
upcoming weekend. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong NE winds are ongoing across the Gulf of Papagayo, 
extending downwind to near 91W along with seas to 8 ft. Moderate
to fresh N winds and seas to 6 ft are in the Gulf of Panama, 
including the Azuero Peninsula. Elsewhere light and variable 
winds prevail with seas to 5 ft in mixed NE and S swell.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force NE to E winds in the
Gulf of Papagayo region will persist most of the forecast period
with rough seas. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are expected in
the Gulf of Panama at night through Sat night. Swell generated 
from the Gulf of Papagayo will continue to propagate into the 
Guatemala and El Salvador waters through Sat. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge dominates the forecast waters N of 15N W of 110W. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ supports an area of fresh trades N of the 
ITCZ to about 20N and W of 124W. Seas are 8-9 ft in a mix of 
long-period N swell and NE wind waves over these waters. Fresh to
strong N to NE winds are N of 20N and W of 120W, with seas of 
8-17 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 
6-8 ft primarily in northerly swell. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E trade winds 
are forecast to persist over the west-central waters through the 
week, with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range. Large northerly swell 
has propagated into the northern waters, producing seas in 
excess of 12 ft which will impact much of the waters north of 
26N through the end of the week. Please, see the Special Features
section for more details.

$$
Ramos