000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221558
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Feb 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of California Gale Warning: Strong to gale force winds
continue over the northern Gulf of California N of 27N. Seas are
forecast to quickly build to near 10 ft in the SW flow early this
afternoon. Gale force winds in the 30 to 35 kt range are also
ongoing over parts of Baja California Norte mainly N of 31N. 
Winds will diminish below gale force in the Gulf of California by
this evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information on this event.

Eastern Pacific Swell Event:
  
A cold front extending from Baja California Norte near 30N115W SW
to 28N121W is followed by fresh to near gale force N to NW winds
and is supporting seas of 8 to 18 ft seas in NW swell N of Punta
Eugenia this morning. These seas also covers the waters N of 24N
E of 136W. This swell event will continue to spread southward 
into Thu, with seas of 8 to 12 ft between Cabo San Lazaro and 
Punta Eugenia by Thu morning, and seas of 10 to 14 ft N of Punta 
Eugenia. Additional pulses of northerly swell will maintain a 
large area of 12 ft seas or greater affecting the north waters 
roughly N of 25N between 120W and 135W through Thu night. Looking
ahead, another swell event, with seas in excess of 12 ft will 
follow a cold front reaching the northern forecast waters on Fri.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information on this event.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 05N90W to 01N103W. The 
ITCZ continues from 01N103W to 03N120W to 03N140W. A secondary
ITCZ extends from 04S83W to 04S96W. Scattered moderate 
convection from 03S to 08S between 84W and 93W, from 00N to 08N
between 90W and 97W, and from 01N to 06N between 109W and 127W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the northern Gulf of California.
A swell event will affect the offshore waters of Baja California
today through Fri. Please, see the Special Features section for 
more details on these two events.

Aside from the gales over the northern California, gentle to moderate
SW winds are over most of the remainder of the gulf, with seas 
in the 1-3 ft range. Fresh to near gale force NW winds are N of
punta Eugenia with seas of 8 to 17 ft in NW swell. South of Punta
Eugenia winds are gentle to moderate from the N-NW and seas in
the 5 to 7 ft in NW swell. Light to gentle winds are noted 
elsewhere along with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range in NW swell. 

For the forecast, gales in the northern Gulf of California will
end by this evening. A set of NW swell will continue to propagate
into the waters off Baja California today, with seas in excess 
of 12 ft impacting much of the waters north of 26N through the 
end of the week. Looking ahead, another swell event, with seas in
excess of 12 ft, is expected N of Punta Eugenia during the 
upcoming weekend. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong to near-gale force NE winds prevail across the Gulf of 
Papagayo, extending downwind to near 90W along with seas to 8 ft.
Moderate to fresh N winds are near the Azuero Peninsula. 
Elsewhere light and variable winds prevail. Outside of the 
Papagayo region, seas are generally 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force NE to E winds in the
Gulf of Papagayo region will persist most of the forecast period
with rough seas. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are expected in
the Gulf of Panama at night through Sat night. Swell generated 
from the Gulf of Papagayo will continue to propagate into the 
Guatemala and El Salvador waters through Sat. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge dominates the forecast waters N of 15N W of 110W. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ supports an area of fresh to strong trades N
of the ITCZ to about 20N and W of 120W. Seas are 8-10 ft in a 
mix of long-period N swell and NE wind waves over these waters. 
Fresh to strong N to NE winds are N of 24N and W of 116W, with 
seas of 8-12 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with 
seas of 6-8 ft primarily in northerly swell. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E trade winds 
are forecast to persist over the west-central waters through the 
week, with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range. Large northerly swell 
has propagated into the northern waters, producing seas in 
excess of 12 ft which will impact much of the waters north of 
26N through the end of the week. Please, see the Special Features
section for more details.

$$
Ramos