000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220826
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Feb 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0820 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of California Gale Warning: Strong to gale force winds have
developed over the northern Gulf of California. Seas are 
forecast to quickly build to near 10 ft in the SW flow this 
morning. Gale force winds in the 30 to 40 kt range are expected 
over parts of Baja California Norte mainly N of 29N. Winds will 
diminish below gale force in the Gulf of California by this 
evening.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information on this event.

Eastern Pacific Swell Event:
  
A cold front over the northern forecast waters has brought an 
increase in winds and seas. Seas generated by gale force winds 
behind the front offshore California have propagated into the 
forecast waters. Seas of 12 to 18 ft in NW swell are forecast to
cover the waters N of 28N and E of 128W. This swell event will 
continue to spread southward into Thu, with seas of 8 to 12 ft 
between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia by Thu morning, and 
seas of 10 to 14 ft N of Punta Eugenia. Additional pulses of 
northerly swell will maintain a large area of 12 ft seas or 
greater affecting the north waters roughly N of 25N between 120W 
and 135W through Thu night. Looking ahead, another swell event, 
with seas in excess of 12 ft will follow a cold front reaching 
the northern forecast waters on Fri.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information on this event.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 01N110W. The ITCZ 
continues from 01N110W to 00N140W. Convection is limited.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the northern Gulf of California.
A swell event will affect the offshore waters of Baja California
on Wed. Please, see the Special Features section for more details
on these two events.

Aside from the gales over the northern California, moderate to
locally fresh winds prevail over the remainder of the Gulf of
California, with seas in the 1-3 ft range. Moderate to fresh 
winds, and seas of 7-9 ft, are found west of Baja California 
Norte as well as off Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle winds are 
noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range west of Baja 
California Sur, and 4-5 ft over the remainder of the open waters
off Mexico. 

For the forecast, aside from the gales in the northern Gulf of
California, a set of NW swell will propagate into the waters off
Baja California today, with seas in excess of 12 ft impacting 
much of the waters north of 26N through the end of the week. 
Looking ahead, another swell event, with seas in excess of 12 ft,
is expected N of Punta Eugenia during the upcoming weekend. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong to near-gale force NE winds prevail across the Gulf of 
Papagayo, extending downwind to near 90W along with seas to 8 ft.
Moderate to fresh N winds are near the Azuero Peninsula. 
Elsewhere light and variable winds prevail. Outside of the 
Papagayo region, seas are generally 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force NE to E winds in the
Gulf of Papagayo region will persist most of the forecast period
with rough seas. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are expected in
the Gulf of Panama at night through Sat night. Swell generated 
from the Gulf of Papagayo will continue to propagate into the 
Guatemala and El Salvador waters through Sat. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge dominates the forecast waters N of 15N W of 110W. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ supports an area of fresh to strong trades N
of the ITCZ to about 20N and W of 120W. Seas are 8-10 ft in a 
mix of long-period N swell and NE wind waves over these waters. 
Fresh to strong N to NE winds are N of 24N and W of 116W, with 
seas of 8-12 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with 
seas of 6-8 ft primarily in northerly swell. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E trade winds 
are forecast to persist over the west-central waters through the 
week, with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range. Large northerly swell 
has propagated into the northern waters, producing seas in 
excess of 12 ft which will impact much of the waters north of 
26N through the end of the week. Please, see the Special Features
section for more details.

$$
AL