000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220200
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Feb 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of California Gale Warning: A cold front will move across 
Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California tonight
into Wed morning. Strong to gale force winds are expected on 
either side of the front and N of 29N beginning tonight. Seas 
are forecast to quickly build to 10 or 11 ft in the SW flow by 
Wed morning. At this time, gale force winds in the 30 to 40 kt 
range are expected over parts of Baja California Norte mainly N 
of 30N, and also E of the Sierra Madre Occidental over northern 
Mexico. Winds will diminish below gale force in the Gulf of 
California by Wed evening with seas subsiding to 8 or 9 ft.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information on this event.

Eastern Pacific Swell Event:
  
A cold front will reach the northern forecast waters early this 
evening bringing an increase in winds and seas. Seas generated by
gale force winds behind the front offshore California will 
propagate into the forecast waters N of Punta Eugenia by Wed 
afternoon. At this time, seas of 12 to 18 ft in NW swell are 
forecast to cover the waters N of 28N and E of 128W. This swell 
event will continue to spread southward on Wed night into Thu, 
with seas of 8 to 12 ft between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia
by Thu morning, and seas of 10 to 14 ft N of Punta Eugenia. 
Additional pulses of northerly swell will maintain a large area 
of 12 ft seas or greater affecting the north waters roughly N of 
25N between 120W and 135W through Thu night. Looking ahead, another
swell event, with seas in excess of 12 ft will follow a cold 
front reaching the northern forecast waters on Fri. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information on this event.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 01N111W. The ITCZ 
continues from 01N111W to 00N140W. Convection is limited.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the northern Gulf of California.
A swell event will affect the offshore waters of Baja California
on Wed. Please, see the Special Features section for more details
on these two events.

Fresh to strong winds have developed over the northern Gulf of
California. Moderate to fresh winds are found west of the Baja
California peninsula as well as off Cabo Corrientes. Light to
gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range
west of the Baja California peninsula, and 4-5 ft over the
remainder of the open waters off Mexico. Seas of 1-3 ft are noted
over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, aside from the gales in the northern Gulf of
California, a set of NW swell will propagate into the waters off
Baja California on Wed, with seas in excess of 12 ft impacting 
much of the waters north of 26N through the end of the week. 
Looking ahead, another swell event, with seas in excess of 12 ft,
is expected N of Punta Eugenia during the upcoming weekend. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong to near-gale force NE winds prevail across the Gulf of 
Papagayo, extending downwind to near 88W along with seas of 8 to
9 ft. Moderate to fresh N winds are near the Azuero Peninsula. 
Elsewhere light and variable winds prevail. Outside of the 
Papagayo region, seas are generally 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force NE to E winds in the
Gulf of Papagayo region will persist most of the forecast period
with rough seas. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are expected in
the Gulf of Panama at night through Sat night. Swell generated 
from the Gulf of Papagayo will continue to propagate into the 
Guatemala and El Salvador waters through Sat. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge dominates the forecast waters N of 15N W of 110W. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ supports an area of fresh to strong trades N
of the ITCZ to about 20N and W of 120W. Seas are 8-10 ft in a 
mix of long-period N swell and NE wind waves over these waters. 
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are N of 24N and W of 116W, with 
seas of 7-9 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas
of 6-8 ft primarily in northerly swell. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E trade winds 
are forecast to persist over the west-central waters through the 
week, with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range. Large northerly swell 
will propagate into the northern waters on Wed, with seas in 
excess of 12 ft impacting much of the waters north of 26N through
the end of the week. Please, see the Special Features section 
for more details.

$$
AL