000 AXPZ20 KNHC 202118 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Feb 20 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning: A cold front will move across Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California Tue night into Wed morning. Strong to gale force winds are expected on either side of the front and N of 29N beginning Tue night. Seas are forecast to quickly build to 10 or 11 ft in the SW flow by Wed morning. At this time, gale force winds in the 30 to 40 kt range are expected over parts of Baja California Norte mainly N of 30N, and also E of the Sierra Madre Occidental over northern Mexico. The winds blow between canyons over a high terrain (gap wind effect) and then intensify. Winds will diminish below gale force in the Gulf of California by Wed evening with seas subsiding to 8 or 9 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on this event. Eastern Pacific Swell Event: A cold front will reach the northern forecast waters late on Tue bringing an increase in winds and seas. Seas generated by gale force winds behind the front offshore California will propagate into the forecast waters N of Punta Eugenia by Wed afternoon. At this time, seas of 12 to 18 ft in NW swell are forecast to cover the waters N of 28N and E of 126W. This swell event will continue to spread southward on Wed night into Thu, with seas of 8 to 12 ft between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia by Thu morning, and seas of 10 to 14 ft N of Punta Eugenia. Additional pulses of northerly swell will maintain an area of 12 ft seas or greater affecting the north waters roughly N of 26N between 118W and 137W through Sat morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on this event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N75W to 01N85W. The ITCZ continues from 01N85W to 02N118W to 01S130W TO 00N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 03N between 98W and 108W, and from 04N to 10N between 122W and 131W. A second ITCZ is analyzed S of the equator and runs from 03S85W to 04S110W. Scattered moderate convection is near the eastern end of the second ITCZ. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the northern Gulf of California. A swell event will affect the offshore waters of Baja California on Wed. Please, see the Special Features section for more details on these two events. Fresh to strong northerly winds prevail over the Tehuantepec region and downwind to near 12N97.5W, with seas to 9 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted across the offshore waters of Baja California, and in the Gulf of California as well as along the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters outside the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the open waters, and 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, gale force winds are expected over parts of Baja California Norte and in the northern Gulf of California Tue night into Wed morning. A new set of NW swell will propagate into the waters off Baja California by midweek. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere across the open waters off Mexico, increasing modestly beginning on Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A recent scatterometer pass indicates fresh to strong NE winds across the Gulfs of Papagayo and Fonseca, extending downwind to near 91W along with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Moderate to fresh N winds are near the Azuero Peninsula and downwind to near 04N, where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere along with seas of 4-5 ft. For the forecast, strong to near-gale force NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will persist most of the forecast period with rough seas. Fresh N to NE winds are expected near the Azuero Peninsula at night through Tue night. Swell generated from the Gulf of Papagayo will continue to propagate into the Guatemala and El Salvador waters through Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge, anchored by a 1041 mb high pressure located N of area near 40N141W, dominates the NW waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports an area of fresh to strong trades N of the ITCZ to about 21N and W of 130W. Satellite derived wind data confirmed the presence of these winds. Seas are 8-10 ft in a mix of long-period N swell and NE wind waves over these waters. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 6-8 ft primarily in northerly swell. A weak 1017 mb low pressure is analyzed near 27N120W. A well defined swirl of mainly low clouds is noted on satellite imagery associated with this feature. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are on the west side of the low center between the low and the aforementioned ridge. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E trade winds are forecast to persist over the west-central waters through the week, with little change to seas within this part of the area. Large northerly swell will propagate into the northern waters by midweek, with seas in excess of 12 ft impacting much of the waters north of 26N from the middle to end of the week. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. $$ GR