000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201543
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Feb 20 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 10N75W to 03N87W. The ITCZ 
continues from 03N97W to 00N115W to 01S140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 92W and 100W, and 
from 03N to 08N between 123W and 128W. A second ITCZ is S of the
equator and runs from 03S87W to 04S110W. Scattered moderate
convection is near 03S87W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong to near gale force winds prevail over the Tehuantepec 
region, with seas to 11 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail west 
of the Baja California peninsula. Elsewhere, gentle to locally 
moderate winds prevail. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the 
open waters, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force N winds will diminish
over the Tehuantepec region through the day. Winds and seas will
continue to decrease in the area through the week. Light to 
gentle winds will prevail elsewhere across the open waters off 
Mexico, increasing modestly beginning on Tue. Light to gentle NW 
winds will prevail across much of the Gulf of California, 
strengthening to fresh to strong over the northern Gulf by 
midweek. A new set of NW swell will propagate into the waters off
Baja California by midweek. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong to near-gale NE winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo,
extending downwind to near 92W along with seas of 8 to 11 ft. 
Fresh to strong N winds are near the Azuero Peninsula and
downwind to near 04N, where seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range. 
Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere along with seas of 4-5 
ft.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale NE to E winds in the Gulf of
Papagayo region will persist most of the forecast period with 
rough seas. Fresh to strong N to NE winds in the Gulf of Panama 
will diminish today. Swell generated from the Gulf of Tehuantepec
gap wind event will subside over the Guatemala and El Salvador 
waters later today.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge dominates the NW waters. The pressure gradient between 
the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports
an area of moderate to fresh trades N of the ITCZ and W of 125W.
Seas are 8-10 ft in a mix of long-period N swell and NE wind 
waves over these waters. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker 
with seas of 6-8 ft primarily in northerly swell.

For the forecast, fresh NE to E trade winds are forecast to 
persist over the west-central waters through the week, with 
little change to seas within this part of the area. Large
northerly swell will propagate into the northern waters midweek,
with seas in excess of 12 ft impacting much of the waters north 
of 25N from the middle to end of the week.

$$
GR