000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151603 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Feb 15 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure building across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico will support the next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region. Sustained gap winds reaching gale force are expected to start Fri morning. These winds are forecast to briefly increase to minimal storm force by Fri night. Gale force winds will persist across the area through early Sun morning. Seas are forecast to peak 19 or 20 ft with this gap wind event Fri night into Sat. Large seas generated from this strong gap wind event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 12 ft or greater reaching as far west as 100W by Sat afternoon. A Storm Warning may be required with the 00Z forecast package. Marine interest transiting across or in the vicinity of the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night into Sat should be aware of this upcoming gap wind event, and take the necessary action to avoid these hazardous marine conditions. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on this event. Eastern Pacific Swell Event: Strong high pressure of 1033 mb centered near 35N135W combined with lower pressures across southern California and northern Baja California is producing a thigh pressure gradient across the NE forecast waters mainly N of 28N and E of 125W. In the area, fresh to strong NW to N winds are blowing with seas of 12 to 15 ft in long period NW swell. This swell event is affecting the offshore waters of Baja California Norte, and will continue to spread southward. Winds and seas will gradually decrease today. By tonight, seas should gradually drop below 12 ft, but a large area of 8 to 11 ft seas will continue to affect the waters N of 20N between 110W and 130W through Thu. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on this event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 02N105W. The ITCZ continues from 02N105W to 03N120W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 04N between 90W and 110W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A large Eastern Pacific Swell Event is ongoing for the NE forecast waters. See the Special Features section for more details. The pressure gradient between a ridge extending across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California and lower pressure along Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh NW to N winds S of Punta Eugenia and fresh to strong NW winds N of Punta Eugenia. Moderate northerly winds are at the entrance of the Gulf of California to Jalisco offshore waters. Gentle winds are elsewhere, including the Tehuantepec region. Seas are 10 to 15 ft in NW swell in the Baja California Norte offshore waters with seas of 8 to 10 ft elsewhere across the Pacific waters of Baja California. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are across the remainder of the area with seas of 4-6 ft in the northern Gulf of California. Winds have diminished below gale force in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, large, long-period NW swell affecting the offshore forecast waters of Baja California will continue to propagate southward through today before diminishing late in the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas to 8 ft. Fresh N to NE winds are occurring over the Gulf of Panama and downwind to near 05N with seas to 6 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will persist through Fri, perhaps reaching near gale-force at night Fri through Sun. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds in the Gulf of Panama will change little this week. Looking ahead, the next strong Tehuantepecer gap wind event should cause large W to NW swell over the Guatemala and El Salvador waters beginning Fri night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends across the northern forecast waters covering roughly the area N of 13N W of 110W with a large 1033 mb high pressure north of the area. The pressure gradient between the ridge/high and the ITCZ to the south is forcing fresh to strong NE to E trades from 06N to 20N west of 120W. Seas are 8 to 11 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas to 7 ft. For the forecast, high pressure will move SE ahead of a cold front while weakening some. The front should reach the NW corner Thu evening and approach the Baja California offshore waters Fri night into Sat. Fresh to strong northerly winds and a new swell event are expected behind the front. $$ GR