455 AXPZ20 KNHC 150945 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Feb 15 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0950 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning: A weakening cold front will move across Baja California Norte and N Gulf of California this morning. Strong to gale-force SW winds are ongoing ahead of the front from 29N to 31N. Gale force NW winds in the wake of the front are also over the northern Gulf of California N of 31N. Seas in the N Gulf of California are in the 8 to 9 ft. Winds and seas are expected to diminish below gale force later this morning as the front moves east of the area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on this event. Eastern Pacific Swell Event: A cold front is entering the Baja California Norte peninsula this morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas are ongoing ahead and in the wake of the front. A large NW swell event with a 15-20 second period is associated with the front. Seas to 20 ft are currently affecting the waters N of 25N and E of 130W, including the Baja California Norte offshore waters. Tonight, seas should gradually drop below 12 ft, but a large area of 8 to 11 ft seas will continue to affect the waters N of 20N between 112W and 130W through Thu. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on this event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from Colombia near 07N78W to 03N93W to 01N109W. The ITCZ extends from 01N109W to 03N131W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 07N between 128W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the N Gulf of California. A large Eastern Pacific Swell Event is ongoing for the NE waters. See the Special Features section for more details. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. Mainly moderate NW to N winds are occurring over the Pacific waters of Baja California S of Punta Eugenia. Moderate NW winds are from Manzanillo northward to Cabo Corriente, with gentle winds elsewhere, including the Tehuantepec region. Seas are 8-15 ft in NW swell in the Baja California offshore waters with highest seas N of Punta Eugenia. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are elsewhere along the Pacific waters, and 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California, in the northern part of the Gulf. For the forecast, gale force winds in the northern Gulf of California due to the passage of a cold front will diminish below gale force early Wed morning. Large, long-period NW swell affecting the offshore forecast waters of Baja California will continue to propagate southward through Wed before diminishing late in the week. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event for the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin Fri morning, briefly reaching storm force by Fri night, and remaining gale force through early Sun morning. Seas are forecast to peak 19 or 20 ft with this gap wind event Fri night into Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas to 8 ft. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are occurring over the Gulf of Panama and downwind to near 05N with seas 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will persist through Fri, perhaps reaching near gale-force at night Fri through Sun. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds in the Gulf of Panama will change little this week, except pulse to strong tonight. Looking ahead, the next strong Tehuantepecer gap wind event should cause large W to NW swell over the Guatemala and El Salvador waters beginning Fri night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends across the northern forecast waters covering roughly the area N of 13N W of 110W with a large 1034 mb high pressure north of the area. The pressure gradient between the ridge/high and the ITCZ to the south is forcing fresh to strong NE to E trades north of 06N west of 120W. Seas are 8 to 11 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker. For the forecast, high pressure will move SE ahead of a cold front while weakening some. The front should reach the NW corner Thu evening and approach the Baja California offshore waters Fri night into Sat. Fresh to strong northerly winds and a new swell event are expected behind the front. $$ Ramos