000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142118 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Feb 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning: A weakening cold front will move across Baja California Norte and N Gulf of California this evening. Strong to gale-force SW winds are expected ahead of the front. These SW winds may peak 35 to 40 kt early this evening. NW winds may also briefly reach minimal gale force in the wake of the front over the northern Gulf of California tonight. Seas in the N Gulf of California should reach 9 or 10 ft with the strongest winds. Winds and seas will quickly diminish by late Wed morning as the front moves east of the area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on this event. Eastern Pacific Swell Event: A weakening cold front extends from northern Baja California near 30N115W to near 23N123W. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front. A large NW swell event with a 15-20 second period will follow this front with seas building to near 18 ft across the NE waters tonight into Wed morning. Seas of at least 12 ft are anticipated to occur east of 130W and north of 25N. By Wed night, seas should gradually drop below 12 ft, but a large area of 8 to 11 ft seas will continue to affect the waters N of 20N between 112W and 130W on Thu. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on this event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from Colombia near 09N75W to 01N110W. The ITCZ extends from 01N110W to 03N125W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within about 120 nm N of the ITCZ and W of 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the N Gulf of California. A large Eastern Pacific Swell Event is anticipated for the NE waters. See the Special Features section for more details. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. Mainly moderate NW to N winds are occurring over the Pacific waters of Baja California based on recent scatterometer pass. Moderate to fresh NW winds are from Manzanillo northward to Cabo Corriente, with gentle winds elsewhere, including the Tehuantepec region. Seas are 8-12 ft in NW swell in the Baja California offshore waters with highest seas N of Punta Eugenia. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are elsewhere along the Pacific waters, and 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California, except 4 to 7 ft in the northern part of the Gulf. For the forecast, a weakening cold front will move across Baja California Norte and N Gulf of California this evening. Strong to gale-force SW winds are expected ahead of the front by this evening. NW winds may also briefly reach minimal gale force in the wake of the front over N Gulf of California tonight. Winds and seas will quickly diminish by late Wed morning as the front moves east of the area. Large, long-period NW swell affecting the offshore forecast waters of Baja California will continue to propagate southward through Wed before diminishing late in the week. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event for the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin Fri morning, briefly reaching storm force by Fri night, and remaining gale force through early Sun morning. Seas are forecast to peak 19 or 20 ft with this gap wind event Fri night into Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas of 8 to 9 ft. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are occurring over the Gulf of Panama and downwind to near 05N with seas 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will persist through Fri, perhaps reaching near gale-force at night Fri through Sun. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds in the Gulf of Panama will change little this week, except pulse to strong tonight. Looking ahead, the next strong Tehuantepecer gap wind event should cause large W to NW swell over the Guatemala and El Salvador waters beginning Fri night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends across the northern forecast waters covering roughly the area N of 15N W of 110W with a large 1037 mb high pressure north of the area at 38N140W. The pressure gradient between the ridge/high and the ITCZ to the south is forcing fresh to strong NE to E trades north of 06N west of 120W. Seas are 8 to 11 ft. A weakening cold front extends from 30N116W to 25N127W to 28N132W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds accompanied by 10 to 13 ft seas are noted in the wake of the front. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker. For the forecast, the front will gradually push southeastward, bringing fresh to strong NW to N winds north of 27W east of 125W tonight and Wed before diminishing. Additionally, a large NW swell event will also follow the front, as discussed above in the Special Features section. The high pressure will move SE ahead of a cold front while weakening some. The front should reach the NW corner Thu evening and approach the Baja California offshore waters Fri night into Sat. Fresh to strong northerly winds and a new swell event are expected behind the front. $$ GR