000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140356 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Feb 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning: A cold front will move across Baja California Norte and N Gulf of California Tue evening. Strong to gale-force SW winds are expected ahead of the front beginning early Tue. These SW winds may peak near 40 kt around early Tue evening. NW winds may also briefly reach minimal gale force in the wake of the front over N Gulf of California Tue evening. Seas in the N Gulf of California should reach around 10 ft, which is very large for these waters. Winds and seas will quickly diminish by Wed morning as the front moves east of the area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on this event. Eastern Pacific Swell Event: A cold front will reach the N forecast waters tonight bringing an increase in winds and seas. A large NW swell with a 15-20 second period will follow this front with seas building to near 18 ft across the NE waters Tue into Wed night. Seas of at least 12 ft are anticipated to occur east of 130W and north of 25N. By Wed night, seas should gradually drop below 12 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on this event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from Colombia near 07N77W to 01N96W. The ITCZ extends from 01N96W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is located from 02N-04W from 97W-100W and from 05N-08N west of 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the N Gulf of California. A large Eastern Pacific Swell Event is anticipated for the NE waters. See the Special Features section for more details. Surface ridging extends from 25N120W to 13N97W. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are occurring over the Pacific waters from Cabo Corrientes northward, with gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are 8-11 ft in NW swell in the Baja California offshore waters, 6-8 ft elsewhere along the Pacific waters, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, a cold front will move across Baja California Norte and N Gulf of California Tue evening. Strong to gale-force SW winds are expected ahead of the front beginning early Tue. NW winds may also briefly reach minimal gale force in the wake of the front over N Gulf of California Tue evening. Winds and seas will quickly diminish by Wed morning as the front moves east of the area. Large, long-period NW swell affecting the offshore forecast waters of Baja California will continue through Wed before diminishing late in the week. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event for the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin Fri morning, possibly reaching storm force by Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong to near-gale NE to E winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas over the Guatemala and El Salvador waters as well as the Gulf of Papagayo region are 7-9 ft in mixed swell. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are occurring over the Gulf of Panama with seas 6-8 ft in mixed wind waves and S swell. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 5-6 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will persist through Fri, perhaps reaching near gale-force Fri and Sat night. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds in the Gulf of Panama will change little this week, except pulse to strong in the evenings tonight through Wed night. A now- ended gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region and the strong pulses from the Papagayo area are causing a large mixed swell in the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters, which will diminish tomorrow morning. Looking ahead, the next strong Tehuantepecer gap wind event should cause large W to NW swell over the Guatemala and El Salvador waters beginning Fri night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging extends from 25N130W to 25N120W to 13N97W with a large 1040 mb high north of the area at 40N141W. The pressure gradient between the ridge/high and the ITCZ to the south are forcing fresh to strong NE to E trades north of 08N west of 120W. Seas are 8-12 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker. From 00N-12N between 90W-113W, seas are 8-10 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, a cold front will reach the northern border along 30N later tonight. It will bring strong to near-gale NW to N winds north of 27W east of 125W on Tue and Wed before diminishing. Additionally, a large NW swell event will also follow in the wake of the cold front, as discussed above in the Special Features section. As the ridge/high diminish by Thu and Fri, the NE to E trades will weaken across the region. $$ Landsea