000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121600
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Feb 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building 
in the wake of a cold front over the Gulf of Mexico is 
supporting gale-force northerly winds across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, which are forecast to continue through early Mon. 
Peak seas of 21 ft will start diminishing this afternoon. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information on this event.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 05N80W to 03N90W to 02N97W. The 
ITCZ extends from 02N97W to 03N120W to 06N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 00N to 05N between 118W and 126W, and
from 03N to 09N between 130W and 138W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for details on an ongoing Gale
Warning over the Tehuantepec region.

A cold front is moving across the Baja California Norte peninsula
and the Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas
of 8 to 11 ft associated with the front are affecting the Baja
Norte offshore waters, except for fresh to strong winds and seas
to 12 ft N of Punta Eugenia. Fresh to strong SW winds are also in
the northern Gulf of California N of 29N with seas to 4 ft. Light
to gentle variable winds are elsewhere across the Baja Sur
offshore waters, remainder Gulf of California and SW Mexico
offshore waters. Seas are 3 to 6 ft in NW swell over these 
regions, except to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, gale-force northerly gap winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will continue through Mon morning. The cold front 
across the Gulf of California will continue moving E while 
weakening today. Fresh to strong NW winds and seas to 16 ft
associated with the front will continue to affect the Baja
offshore waters through Mon. Fresh to strong S to SW winds in 
the northern Gulf of California will continue through Mon. By 
midweek, another low system N of the area will bring fresh to 
strong NW winds to the Baja offshore waters and seas to 17 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE winds continue offshore Nicaragua and the 
Gulf of Papagayo region, extending to near 88W. Seas are 8-10 ft 
in this area. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are in the Gulf of 
Panama, extending southward to 04N with seas of 5-6 ft. Light to 
gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere, along with seas to 5 ft 
primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf 
of Papagayo region and Nicaragua waters will persist through the
middle of the week. Winds are expected to reach near gale-force 
at night through midweek. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds in the 
Gulf of Panama will change little into next week, except pulse to
strong at night starting tonight through mid-week. The storm- 
force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will 
generate large NW swell that will propagate through the Guatemala
and El Salvador offshore waters through tonight.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad high pressure prevails over the area. An area of fresh to 
strong NE to E winds are across the waters from 07N to 30N and W
of 125W. Large NE wind-generated seas are combining with NW 
swell moving through these waters resulting in seas of 8-12 ft.  
Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas are noted.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue building east-
southeastward supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds to the 
through Sun. Seas up to 12 ft will prevail over the western part
of the area through today as the large NW swell propagates into 
that part of the area. A cold front moving across the Gulf of 
California will be followed by strong high pressure behind it 
tightening the gradient across the area. This will result in 
fresh to strong N to NE winds and large seas over much of the 
area waters W of 120W this weekend. Moderate winds and seas will 
prevail elsewhere through mid-week with the exception for an area
of fresh to strong winds along the ITCZ mainly W of 130W on 
Tue/Wed.

$$
Ramos