000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120922
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Feb 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Strong high pressure building
in the wake of the cold front over the Gulf of Mexico is 
inducing storm-force northerly winds across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, which are forecast to continue through Sun morning. 
The pressure gradient will continue across the Tehuantepec area
on Sun supporting gale force winds through Sun night/early Mon. 
Peak seas of 22 ft are expected through this afternoon. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information on this event.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 05N91W. The ITCZ extends
from 03N95W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 
00N-25N and W of 117W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for details on an ongoing Storm
Warning over the Tehuantepec region.

Strong high pressure centered NW of the forecast waters continue
to extend a ridge SE across the Baja California offshore waters.
A weak pressure gradient over most of the region is resulting in
light to gentle variable winds and seas of 5-6 ft in NW swell to
the S of Punta Eugenia. A cold front is moving across the
northern portion of the Gulf of California. Fresh to strong NW 
winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft prevail over the waters in the wake
of the front. In the Gulf of California, moderate to fresh SW
winds prevail over the northern portion of the gulf in the
vicinity of the aforementioned front, with seas to 3 ft. Light 
to gentle variable winds and 5-6 ft seas in NW swell are elsewhere
offshore of SW Mexico.

For the forecast, storm-force northerly gap winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will continue through this morning. Afterward, gale 
conditions will continue through Mon morning, with peak winds to
45 kt and seas to 21 ft. The cold front across the Gulf of 
California will continue moving E while weakening. Fresh to 
strong NW winds and seas to 16 ft will follow the front through 
Mon. Fresh to strong S to SW winds will develop in the northern 
Gulf of California Sun night through Mon associated with the 
passage of the front. By midweek, another low system N of the 
area will bring fresh to strong NW winds to the Baja offshore 
waters and seas to 17 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE winds continue offshore Nicaragua and the 
Gulf of Papagayo region, extending to near 88W. Seas are 8-10 ft 
in this area. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are in the Gulf of 
Panama, extending southward to 04N with seas of 5-6 ft. Light to 
gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere, along with seas to 5 ft 
primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf 
of Papagayo region and Nicaragua waters will persist through the
middle of the week. Winds are expected to reach near gale-force 
at night through midweek. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds in the 
Gulf of Panama will change little into next week, except pulse to
strong at night starting tonight through mid-week. The storm- 
force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will 
generate large NW swell that will propagate through the Guatemala
and El Salvador offshore waters through tonight.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad high pressure prevails over the area. An area of fresh to 
strong NE to E winds are across the waters from 07N to 30N and W
of 125W. Large NE wind-generated seas are combining with NW 
swell moving through these waters resulting in seas of 8-12 ft.  
Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas are noted.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue building east-
southeastward supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds to the 
through Sun. Seas up to 12 ft will prevail over the western part
of the area through today as the large NW swell propagates into 
that part of the area. A cold front moving across the Gulf of 
California will be followed by strong high pressure behind it 
tightening the gradient across the area. This will result in 
fresh to strong N to NE winds and large seas over much of the 
area waters W of 120W this weekend. Moderate winds and seas will 
prevail elsewhere through mid-week with the exception for an area
of fresh to strong winds along the ITCZ mainly W of 130W on 
Tue/Wed.

$$
ERA