000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120315 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Feb 12 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Strong high pressure building in the wake of the cold front over the Gulf of Mexico is inducing storm-force northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, which are forecast to continue through Sun morning. The pressure gradient will continue across the Tehuantepec area on Sun supporting gale force winds through Sun night/early Mon. Peak seas of 23 ft are expected tonight. East Pacific Significant Seas: Large NW swell continues to move across the NW open waters N of 05N and W of 116W. The swell is forecast to spread southeastward along with 8 to 13 ft seas and continue to affect the Baja California offshore waters tonight. The swell will then continue to affect the W and SW Mexico offshore waters through the middle of the upcoming week. The dominant period of the large swell is expected to range between 10 to 16 seconds. A second set of longer period swell is forecast to enter the Baja California Norte offshore waters Sun morning and merge with the ongoing swell. The dominant period for this second swell event will be between 10 to 19 seconds and will continue to affect the Baja offshores through Thu. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on these events. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N79W to 04N89W. The ITCZ extends from 04N89W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-22N W of 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for details on an ongoing Storm Warning over the Tehuantepec region. Strong high pressure centered NW of the forecast waters continue to extend a ridge SE across the Baja California offshore waters. A weak pressure gradient over most of the region is resulting in light to gentle variable winds and seas of 5-6 ft in NW swell to the S of Punta Eugenia. A cold front is moving across the Baja California Norte followed by moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft. In the Gulf of California, winds are gentle to moderate with seas to 3 ft. Light to gentle variable winds and 5-6 ft seas in mixed SW and NW swell are elsewhere offshore of SW Mexico. For the forecast, storm-force northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through Sun morning. Peak winds are forecast to be 50 kt and seas 23 ft. Afterward, gale conditions will continue through Mon morning. The cold front across Baja California will continue moving E while weakening. Fresh to strong NW winds and seas to 17 ft will follow the front through Mon. Fresh to strong S to SW winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California Sun night through Mon associated with the passage of the front. Moderate to fresh winds and seas to 11 ft will continue to affect the remainder Baja offshore waters through mid-week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE winds continue offshore Nicaragua and the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending to near 88W. Seas are 5-8 ft in this area. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to 04N with seas of 5-6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere, along with seas to 5 ft primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region and Nicaragua waters will persist through the middle of the week. Winds are expected to reach near gale-force at night through Mon night. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds in the Gulf of Panama will change little into next week, except pulse to strong at night starting on Sun night through mid-week. The storm-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region today will generate large NW swell that will propagate through the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters through Sun night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad high pressure prevails over the area. An area of fresh to strong NE to E winds are across the waters from 07N to 30N and W of 125W. Large NE wind-generated seas are combining with NW swell moving through these waters resulting in seas of 8-13 ft. Please see the Special Features section for information on these significant seas. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas are noted. For the forecast, high pressure will continue building east- southeastward supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds to the through Sun. Seas of 12 ft and greater will prevail over the western part of the area through Sun as the large NW swell propagates into that part of the area. A cold front moving across the Baja California area will be followed by strong high pressure behind it tightening the gradient across the area. This will result in fresh to strong N to NE winds and large seas over much of the area waters W of 120W this weekend. Moderate winds and seas will prevail elsewhere through mid-week with the exception for an area of fresh to strong winds along the ITCZ mainly W of 130W on Tue/Wed. $$ ERA