000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111558 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Feb 11 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A strong cold front extending from the NE Gulf of Mexico SW to the eastern Bay of Campeche will continue to move across the Gulf of Mexico through tonight. Strong high pressure building behind the front across the gulf is inducing strong gale-force northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The surface ridge will continue to strengthen today, and as a result winds in the Tehuantepec region are forecast to briefly reach storm-force from this afternoon through Sun morning. Current peak seas of 20 ft will build to 23 ft by tonight. Gale-force winds are forecast to continue across the area through Mon morning before diminishing. East Pacific Significant Seas: Large NW swell continues to move across the NW open waters N of 07N and W of 118W. The swell is forecast to spread southeastward along with 8 to 13 ft seas and reach the Baja California offshore waters today. The swell will then continue to affect the W and SW Mexico offshore waters through the middle of the upcoming week. The dominant period of the large swell is expected to range between 10 to 14 seconds. A second set of longer period swell is forecast to enter the Baja California Norte offshore waters Sun morning and merge with the ongoing swell. The dominant period for this second swell event will be between 10 to 19 seconds and will continue to affect the Baja ofsshores through Thu. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on these events. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N82W to 03N90W. The ITCZ extends from 03N90W to 02N113W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-23N W of 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for details on an ongoing Gale Warning and an upcoming Storm Warning for the Tehuantepec region. Strong high pressure centered NW of the forecast waters continue to extend a ridge SE across the Baja California offshore waters. A weak pressure gradient over most of the region is resulting in light to gentle variable winds and seas of 5-6 ft in NW swell to the S of Punta Eugenia. A low pressure and associated cold front is starting to move across the Baja California Norte offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia followed by fresh to strong NW winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft. In the Gulf of California, winds are gentle to locally moderate with seas to 2 ft. Light to gentle variable winds and 5-6 ft seas in mixed SW and NW swell are elsewhere offshore of SW Mexico. For the forecast, gale-force northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will prevail this morning. High pressure in the Gulf of Mexico will strengthens during the day, and winds are forecast to briefly reach storm-force this afternoon through Sun morning. Peak winds are forecast to be 50 kt and seas 20 ft. Afterward, gale conditions will continue through Mon morning. High pressure in the Great Basin will shift eastward and will result in winds diminishing to moderate speeds along the Gulf of California tonight. Moderate to fresh NW winds and long period NW swell will affect the Baja California Norte offshore waters tonight through Sat night ahead. A cold front will move across this same region on Sun followed with fresh to strong NW winds and seas of 12-16 ft. Moderate to fresh winds and seas to 11 ft will continue to affect the remainder Baja offshore waters through mid-week. Fresh to strong S to SW winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California Sun night through Mon associated with the passage of the cold front. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE winds continue offshore Nicaragua and the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending to near 91W. Seas are 6-8 ft in this area. Moderate N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to 04N with seas of 5-6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere, along with 3-4 ft seas primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region and Nicaragua waters will persist through the middle of the week. Winds are expected to reach near gale-force at night at least through Mon. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds in the Gulf of Panama will change little into next week, except pulse to strong at night starting on Sun night through mid-week. The storm-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region today will generate large NW swell that will propagate through the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters through Sun night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad high pressure prevails over the area. An area of fresh to strong NE to E winds are across the waters from 11N to 30N and W of 128W. Large NE wind-generated seas are combining with NW swell moving through these waters resulting in seas of 8-13 ft. Please see the Special Features section for information on these significant seas. Elsewhere, moderate wind and seas are noted. For the forecast, high pressure will continue building east- southeastward supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds to the W of 130W through the weekend. Seas of 12 ft and greater will prevail over the western part of the area through Sun as the large NW swell propagates into that part of the area. A cold front will approach the Baja offshore waters today, with the strong high pressure behind it tightening the gradient across the area. This will result in fresh to strong N to NE winds and large seas over much of the area waters W of 120W this weekend. $$ Ramos