000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102121 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Feb 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A strong cold front extending from Cape San Blas, Florida to Tampico, Mexico will move across the Gulf of Mexico through Sat night. Strong high pressure behind the front building southward across eastern Mexico and the western gulf will induce gale-force northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight. The surface ridge is forecast to strengthen on Saturday, and as a result winds in the Tehuantepec region are forecast to briefly reach storm-force from the afternoon hours through early Sun morning. Seas are expected to peak to 22 ft by Sat night and start gradually subside afterward. Gale-force winds are forecast to continue across the area through early Mon morning before diminishing. East Pacific Significant Seas: Large NW swell continues to move across the NW open waters N of 20N and W of 123W. The swell is forecast to spread southeastward along with 8 to 13 ft seas and reach the Baja California Norte offshore waters tonight. The swell will then continue to affect the remainder Baja offshore waters through late Monday. The dominant period of the large swell through Mon is expected to range between 10 to 14 seconds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on these warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from northwestern Colombia near 07N78W to 05N90W to 02N97W. The ITCZ extends from 02N98W to 01N120W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-20N W of 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure persists north of the Pacific waters W of 120W. Fresh to strong NNW winds continue across the Gulf of California, where seas are 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds are across the Baja California offshore waters to Cabo Corrientes with locally fresh winds N of Punta Eugenia. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range in NW swell over this region. Fresh to strong N to NE winds has started in the Tehuantepec region where seas are building to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere offshore of southwestern Mexico. Seas are 4-6 ft elsewhere offshore Mexico. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will increase to gale-force tonight. These conditions will become stronger through the weekend, with winds likely approaching 50 kt on Sat night. Seas will peak around 19 ft from Sat afternoon through Sat night. Gale conditions are expected to continue across the area through Sun night/early Mon. Fresh to strong NNW winds in the Gulf of California will diminish tonight. Fresh to strong NW winds will move into the far northern offshore waters of Baja California from late tonight into Sun, as a cold front moves through the area and dissipates, accompanied by building seas in NW swell. Fresh to strong S to SW winds develop in the far northern Gulf of California on Tue ahead of a strong cold front. These winds are expected to become strong to near gale SW to W winds Tue night along with building seas to 9 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong NE winds are offshore Nicaragua and the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending offshore to near 92W. Seas are 5-8 ft in this area. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to 03N, where seas are 5-6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere, along with 4-5 ft seas primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region and Nicaragua waters will persist through early next week. Winds may reach near gale-force at night from Fri through Sun. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds in the Gulf of Panama will change little into next week, except pulse to strong Sun night. A significant gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region is expected over the weekend. Large NW swell generated from this event will propagated through the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Sat through late Sun night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad high pressure is over the area. A broad area of fresh to strong NE to E winds are across the waters from 06N to 30N and W of 130W. Large NE wind-generated seas are combining with NW swell moving through these waters resulting in seas of 8-13 ft. Please see the Special Features section for information on these significant seas. Elsewhere, moderate wind and seas are noted. For the forecast, high pressure will continue building east- southeastward supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds to the W of 130W today. Seas of 12 ft and greater will prevail over the western part of the area today as the large NW swell propagates into that part of the area. A cold front will approach the Baja offshore waters Sat, with the strong high pressure behind it tightening the gradient across the area. This will result in fresh to strong N to NE winds and large seas over much of the area waters W of 120W through the weekend. $$ Ramos