000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082350 AAA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2350 UTC Wed Feb 08 2023 Updated Remainder of Area section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Pacific Significant Seas: Strong high pressure remains just north of the discussion waters, and is maintaining a large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds across the region north of 10N and west of 115W. Significant wave heights within this area of winds are 11-13 ft primarily due to NW swell at 12-15 seconds. The highest of the wave heights located from 15N to 22N W of 137W. Seas will will subside to just below 12 ft by late tonight and change little through Thu night as the majority of the strong winds shift to W of 140W. Seas then build slightly back up to 12 ft near 140W from late Thu night through Fri as a set of NW swell at 12-16 seconds begins to propagate into the far western part of the area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from just inland NW Colombia near 10N75W to 03N83W to 03N91W to 03N100W and to 03N110W. The ITCZ extends from 03N110W to 06N122W to 04N132W to 06N133W and to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm S of trough between 77W-80W, and also within 60 nm N of the ITCZ between 116W-121W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure dominates the Pacific waters, producing fresh to strong NNW winds across the Gulf of California, where seas are 5-8 ft across central and southern sections. Fresh to occasionally strong N to NE winds are offshore the waters of the extreme southern part of Baja California, while gentle to occasionally moderate N to NE winds are elsewhere offshore Mexico. The most eastern edge of an extensive area of NW swell reaches to just SW of Cabo San Lucas and to the vicinity of the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are 4-7 ft elsewhere offshore Mexico due to long- period NW swell. For the forecast, strong high pressure dominating the Baja California waters will maintain fresh N to NE winds and seas to 8 ft tonight from Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas tonight. Winds and seas will then diminish through Fri morning. Strong NNW winds in the central and southern Gulf of California will persist through Thu morning before diminishing modestly through Fri. Peak seas of 8-9 ft will persist across the southern Gulf through Wed morning. Looking ahead, fresh to occasionally strong northerly gap winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting early Thu, then increase to gale-force starting Fri night, and possibly increasing to storm force late Fri night into early Sat afternoon. Fresh to strong NW winds will be offshore far northern Baja California from Fri night into early Sun, then diminishing to fresh speeds through Sun night and to moderate speeds Mon and Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong NE winds are offshore Nicaragua and the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending offshore to 90W per latest ASCAT data over the area, and as verified by a ship observation in the area. Seas are 6-8 ft in this area. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to 05N, where seas are 4-7 ft. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere, along with 4-6 ft seas primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region and Nicaragua waters will persist through early next week. Winds may reach near gale-force at night on Sun and Mon. Fresh N-NE winds will pulse to locally strong tonight, then remain moderate to fresh across the Gulf of Panama into Sat. A significant gale-force gap wind event cross Tehuantepec over the weekend is expected to send large NW swell across the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Sat through Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Updated Strong 1033 mb high pressure remains N of the area near 37N130W. The associated broad ridge is maintaining a large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds across the waters N of about 06N and W of about 115W. Large NE wind generated seas are combining with NW swell moving through the regional waters resulting in seas of 11-13 ft. Please see the Special Features section for information concerning these significant seas. East of 110W, seas are 6-9 ft in mixed NW and S swell. Elsewhere, moderate wind and seas are evident. A weak perturbation aloft, in combination with low-level speed convergence of the trade flow is helping to sustain scattered showers and thunderstorms along and north of the ITCZ between 115W-1250W. This activity remains about stationary for the time being, but cirrus blow off clouds from the tops of the convection is streaming E from 05N to 14N and between 113W-130W. For the forecast, the aforementioned strong high pressure will dominate the waters west of 115W through tonight, then begin to drift NE and gradually weaken through Thu. Strong NE trade winds and large seas peaking to 12 and 13 ft will prevail across the area west of 130W tonight, then subside to just below 12 ft early on Thu. A cold front is expected to enter the NW waters Thu afternoon, accompanied by large NW swell. High pressure behind the front will act to produce fresh to strong NE to E winds to the west of 130W Thu night through Fri. Seas will build again to 12 ft and greater over the western part of the area on Fri as the large NW swell begins to propagate into that part of the area. The weakening front will approach the Baja offshore waters Sat, with the strong high pressure behind it tightening the gradient resulting in fresh to strong N to NE winds and large seas over the weekend. $$ Aguirre