000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071537
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Feb 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Pacific Significant Seas: Strong high pressure over the northwest
Pacific is supporting a large area of fresh to strong NE to E 
winds across the region north of 10N and west of 110W. Altimeter
satellite passes and drifting buoys confirm combined wave 
heights of 8 to 12 ft over much of this area, reaching as high as
13 ft near 20N135W. Drifting buoys also show that these winds 
have generated large and steep NE wind waves at 7-9 seconds, that
are merging with moderate to large NW swell with periods of 11 
to 13 seconds. Seas are dominated by N to NW swell east of 125W, 
and mixed NE waves and NW swell to the west of 125W. These high 
seas will prevail through tonight across the waters east of 125W,
before gradually subsiding. Please read the latest High Seas 
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for 
more information. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from near 10N75W to 03N82W to 03N102W. 
The ITCZ extends from 03N102W to 05N125W to beyond 05N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 07N between
125W and 127W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure dominates the Pacific waters west of 110W, 
and is producing fresh to occasionally strong northerly winds 
across the Baja California waters, and across central and 
southern portions of the Gulf of California. Large NW swell 
continues to spread southeastward across the Baja offshore 
waters, and is producing seas to around 12 ft offshore of Baja 
Norte, with seas to 8 ft extending southeastward to Socorro
Island. See the Special Features section above for more details 
on these high seas. Elsewhere, fresh to moderate N to NW winds 
prevail to 20N and Cabo Corrientes, then become mainly gentle to 
moderate NW to W winds to offshore of Puerto Angel. Seas of 5 to 
7 ft in mainly NW swell prevail south of 20N.

Fresh N wind prevails across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region S to
13N, where seas are 6 ft. These conditions will prevail through 
morning before winds become variable by afternoon. 

For the forecast, strong high pressure dominates the Baja 
California offshore waters, and will maintain strong N winds and 
large seas in excess of 12 ft tonight, then gradually diminish 
through early Fri. Strong N winds in the central and southern 
Gulf of California will persist into Thu night. Looking ahead, 
fresh to occasionally strong northerly gap winds will pulse 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting Thu, with strong gales or
minimal storm expected Fri night into early Sat.
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong NE winds are offshore Nicaragua and the Gulf of Papagayo 
region, extending offshore to 90W. In this area, seas of 6-8 ft 
prevail. N-NE winds are fresh in the Gulf of Panama, producing 
seas of 4-6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere, 
along with 4-6 ft seas primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf 
of Papagayo and coast of Nicaragua will prevail through Sat. 
Fresh N-NE winds will pulse to locally strong across the Gulf of 
Panama into Thu. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information
concerning significant swell.

Outside of the areas of fresh to strong winds and large swell,
moderate wind and seas are evident. A weak short wave trough in
the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere is supporting a few
showers and thunderstorms along the ITCZ near 125W.

Strong high pressure will dominate the waters west of 120W through
tonight, then gradually weaken through Thu. Strong tradewinds 
and large seas to at least 12 ft will prevail across most of the
area through mid week before winds and seas gradually diminish 
from E to W through Thu. A new cold front is expected to enter 
the waters north of 20N and west of 130W Thu, followed by
additional large NW swell.

$$
Christensen/Mahoney