000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Feb 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly winds continue to funnel through the Chivela Pass in southern Mexico and are still generating gale force N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec where peak seas have diminished to 12 ft. Winds will diminish below gale-force late this morning as high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico shifts northeastward. Seas of 8-10 ft generated by this event will continue to affect the SW adjacent waters as far 110W and southeastward across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through this evening before quickly diminishing. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from near 06N77W to 06N83W to 05N90W. The ITCZ extends from 03N91W to 02N120W to beyond 04N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 119W and 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details on an ongoing Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale force winds in this region are expected to end late this morning, then remain strong through Mon afternoon. A weakening ridge extends southeastward across the offshore waters of Mexico ahead of an approaching cold front along 121W. The pressure gradient between the front and the ridge ahead is tightening and already supporting moderate to fresh NE winds across the Baja California Norte offshore waters where seas have built to 7 ft. In the Gulf of California, winds remain light to gentel with seas to 3 ft. Moderate northerly winds are at the entrance of the gulf extending to the Jalisco offshore waters. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere with seas to 7 ft in NW swell. For the forecast, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a weakening cold front will approach Baja California late today, with high pressure building across the Baja waters behind it. This will produce fresh to near gale force NW-N winds offshore Baja California from Cabo San Lazaro northward this afternoon through Mon night, and through the Gulf of California waters Mon morning through Thu. Seas during peak winds are forecast to build to 13 ft in NW swell across Baja Norte, and to 9 ft across the southern Gulf. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE winds are offshore of Nicaragua, and the Gulf of Papagayo region and extend to 92W, where seas of 7-10 ft prevail. Fresh N-NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama reaching beyond the Azuero Peninsula to 02N, and producing seas of 5-8 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere, along with 4-6 ft seas primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will prevail through mid-week, reaching near gale-force at times, and producing periods of 7-10 ft seas. Large fresh swell generated by a Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event will continue to propagate through the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters through this evening. Fresh to strong N-NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama, mainly at night, through Mon night. Moderate winds will then dominate the Panama region through Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weakening surface ridging dominates the open waters N of 14N between the Baja California offshore waters to 140W. A cold front extends from 30N121W SW to 22N139W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas of 8-13 follow this front. The pressure gradient between the surface ridge and lower pressure from the ITCZ supports a belt of fresh to strong trades N of the ITCZ to 22N and W of 118W. For the forecast, the cold front will approach the Baja California Norte waters today. Strong high pressure will build in the wake of the front with fresh to strong trades covering most of the waters west of 120W by Sun afternoon, and moderate to fresh trades elsewhere north of the ITCZ by then. Similar conditions will continue into early next week. NW swell of 8 ft or greater associated with the front will spread SE across the northern waters through tonight, then expand across most of the waters west of 110W Sun night, aided by the fresh to strong trades. $$ Ramos