000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050945 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Feb 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0850 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure persists tonight across the Gulf of Mexico, in the wake of a dissipated frontal boundary across the Yucatan Channel. Gale force N winds are present in the Gulf of Tehuantepec extending southwestward to 14N. Seas across this area are in the 10-16 ft range. Winds will gradually diminish below gale-force by Sun morning as the high pressure shifts northeastward. Large seas generated by this event will continue to spread southward to 04N and southeastward across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Sun evening before quickly diminishing. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from near 10N75W to 06N79W to 06N90W. The ITCZ extends from 06N90W to 01.5N98W to 02.5N112W to beyond 05N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 13N W of 121W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details on an ongoing Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale force winds in this region are expected to end Sun morning, then remain strong through Mon afternoon. Strong winds extend well offshore to near 12N99W, while seas 8 ft and greater currently extend southwestward to beyond 04N110W. A weakening ridge extends southeastward across the offshore waters of Mexico to near 21N110W, ahead of an approaching cold front along 125W. This moderate pressure gradient is supporting mainly light to moderate winds with seas to 4 ft in the Gulf of California and 5-7 ft in NW swell across the Baja California offshore waters to near Puerto Angel, except 7 to 8 ft across the outer waters or Baja Norte. For the forecast, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a weakening cold front will approach Baja California by late Sun, with high pressure building across the Baja waters with behind it. This will produce fresh to near gale force NW-N winds offshore Baja California from Cabo San Lazaro northward Sun afternoon through Mon night, and through the Gulf of California waters Mon morning through Thu. Seas during peak winds are forecast to build to 13 ft in NW swell across Baja Norte, and to 9 ft across the southern Gulf. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE winds are offshore of Nicaragua, and the Gulf of Papagayo region and extend to 90W, where seas of 7-10 ft prevail. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama reaching beyond the Azuero Peninsula to 06N, and producing seas of 5-8 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere, along with 4-6 ft seas primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will prevail through mid-week, reaching near gale-force at times, and producing periods of 7-10 ft seas. Large fresh swell generated by a strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gale- force gap wind event will continue to propagate through the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters through Sun evening. Fresh to strong N-NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama, mainly at night, through Mon night. Moderate winds will then dominate the Panama region through Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface high pressure earlier near 29N124W has collapsed, leaving a weakening ridge dominating the open waters N of 13N between the Baja California offshore waters to 140W. A cold front is NW of the ridge, extending from 30N125W SW to 22N140W. Fresh N to NE winds and seas of 8-13 follow this front. The pressure gradient between high pressure NW of the cold front and lower pressure from the ITCZ supports a belt of fresh to strong trades N of the ITCZ to 22N and W of 118W. For the forecast, the cold front will approach the Baja California Norte waters tonight through Sun. Strong high pressure will build in the wake of the front with fresh to strong trades covering most of the waters west of 120W by Sun afternoon, and moderate to fresh trades elsewhere north of the ITCZ by then. Similar conditions will continue into early next week. NW swell of 8 ft or greater associated with the front will spread SE across the northern waters through tonight, then expand across most of the waters west of 110W Sun night, aided by the fresh to strong trades. $$ Stripling