000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040934 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Feb 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A strong cold front has moved across the Gulf of Mexico in the past 48 hours, and extends from the Straits of Florida across the Yucatan Channel. Strong high pressure building in its wake along the Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico is producing a very tight pressure gradient across southern Mexico. Strong gale force N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec have increased to storm force north of 14N in recent hours, while strong gales have expanded southward to 12N. Seas across this area have built to 12-22 ft. These peak storm-force winds are expected to diminish back to strong gales before sunrise this morning. Afterward, winds will gradually diminish below gale-force by Sun morning. Very large seas will build with these gale to storm-force winds, peaking at 18-23 ft overnight into Sat morning. Large seas generated by this event will spread southward to 08N and southeastward across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from near 10N74.5W to 01N84W to 02.5N93W. The ITCZ extends from 02.5N93W to 03N97W to 01.5N112W to 06N137W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 116W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details on an upcoming Storm Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Storm force northerly winds currently prevail across the immediate Gulf waters where seas have built to 22 ft. Gale force winds are expected to end Sun morning, then remain strong through Mon. Seas to 8 ft extend well offshore to near 09N102W. High pressure located W of the Baja California peninsula continues to extend a ridge southeastward across the offshore waters of Mexico to near 16N106W, while high pressure N of the area has slightly shifted eastward. This has reduced the pressure gradient, leading to moderate to locally fresh NW winds across the Gulf of California, with seas of 3-5 ft across central and southern portions. Moderate NW to N winds extend across the Baja offshore waters and the entrance of the Gulf to the area of Jalisco where seas range between 5-6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere W of Puerto Angel, with seas to 6 ft in NW swell. For the forecast, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf of California are forecast to continue through early Sat. A decaying cold front will approach Baja California by late Sun, with high pressure building across the Baja waters with and behind it. This will produce fresh to strong NW-N winds offshore Baja California from Cabo San Lazaro northward Sun through Mon night. Similar winds will spread south through the Gulf of California. New NW swell will arrive across the offshore Baja waters ahead of the front, and with the fresh to strong winds. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE winds are offshore of Nicaragua, and the Gulf of Papagayo region, where seas of 6-9 ft prevail. Fresh N-NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama reaching beyond the Azuero Peninsula and producing seas of 4-7 ft. Winds are mainly light to gentle elsewhere, along with 4-6 ft seas primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will prevail into early next week, near gale- force at times, producing periods of 7-10 ft seas. Large fresh swell generated by the current Gulf of Tehuantepec storm-force gap wind event will continue to propagate through the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters tonight through Sun. Fresh to strong N-NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama, mainly at night, through Sun night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A stationary front has dissipated from 30N127W to 22N140W. NW swell associated with the front is producing seas of 8-10 ft north of 25N and west of 125W. Surface high pressure of 1025 mb is centered near 30N123W, with an associated ridge dominate the open waters N of 10N W of 110W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are elsewhere north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 108W, with gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the open waters. Seas of 7-9 ft cover the waters north of the ITCZ to about 20N and west of 110W due to mixed NW and NE swell. Seas of 5-7 ft in mixed SW and NW swell prevail across the remainder of the waters. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds extending from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event extends well southwest and will reach to 107W by Sat. A new cold front will move southeast of 30N140W by early Sat, and approach the Baja California Norte waters Sat night through Sun. Strong high pressure will build in the wake of the front with fresh to strong trades covering most of the waters west of 120W by Sun, and moderate to fresh trades elsewhere north of the ITCZ by then. Similar conditions will continue into early next week. NW swell of 8 ft or greater associated with the front will mainly be across the northern waters through tonight, then expand across most of the waters west of 110W, aided by the fresh to strong trades. $$ Stripling