000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021915 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Feb 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A strong cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico tonight through Fri. Strong high pressure in its wake will build southward along the Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico leading to a significant tightening of the pressure gradient. Winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are currently fresh to strong, but will rapidly increase to gale-force late tonight, then strong gale-force during the day Fri, and then storm-force Fri evening into the early overnight hours. Winds will diminish back to strong gale-force by late Fri night into early Sat, then diminish below gale-force early Sun, and eventually moderate or weaker by Tue. Very large seas will build with these gale to storm-force winds, peaking around 18-20 ft Fri night into early Sat. Seas will subside to less than 8 ft by Mon night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from Panama near 08N79W to 05N94W. The ITCZ axis extends from 05N94W to 02N107W to 06N121W, then resumes west of a surface trough from 07N123W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 03N to 10N between 114W and 132W, and from 05N to 07N between 137W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details on an upcoming Storm Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure located southwest of the California Channel Islands extends a ridge southeastward across the offshore waters of Mexico. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are over the Gulf of California south of 27N to near Cabo Corrientes, spilling through Baja California Sur gaps just northwest of Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 2-4 ft in the Gulf of California south of 27N and 1-2 ft in the northern Gulf of California where winds are moderate or weaker. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 5-8 ft in NW swell west of 110W, and 4-7 ft across the remainder of the waters. For the forecast, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds will increase slightly to fresh to strong in the central and southern Gulf of California tonight through early Fri afternoon due to a tightening pressure gradient, then moderate to fresh there through early Sat. A decaying cold front will approach Baja California by the end of the weekend with high pressure building behind it which will spread fresh to strong NW-N winds offshore Baja California from Cabo San Lazaro northward Sun night through Mon night. Similar winds will spread south through the Gulf of California. Winds will be mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere through the forecast period. Meanwhile, the NW swell will decay through the end of the week. A new set of larger NW swell will arrive offshore Baja California with the fresh to strong winds. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE winds are offshore Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo along with seas of 7-9 ft, with fresh winds and 4-7 ft seas offshore the Gulf of Fonseca. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are from the Gulf of Panama south-southwestward, including near the Azuero Peninsula along with 4-7 ft seas. Winds are mainly light to gentle elsewhere, along with 4-6 ft seas primarily in long-period SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will prevail into early next week, near gale- force at times, along with periods of 7-10 ft seas. Large fresh swell generated by an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec storm-force gap wind event is expected to begin to propagate through the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Fri evening through Sun. Fresh to strong N-NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama mainly at night through Sat night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A slowing cold front extends across the northwest waters from 30N132W to 25N140W. Fresh to strong S-SW winds are north of 26N within about 150-240 nm ahead of the front. Moderate to fresh NW winds follow the front. NW swell of 8-11 ft is north of 27N and west of 128W. High pressure southwest of the California Channel Islands extends a ridge southwestward ahead of the cold front to near 22N140W. A pronounced surface trough is south of the ridge along the ITCZ, extending from 12N118W to 07N125W. Fresh to locally strong winds are possible within about 240 nm northwest of the trough. Moderate to locally fresh trades are elsewhere north of the ITCZ to 13N and west of the trough, with gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the open waters. Seas of 7-11 ft cover the waters north of the ITCZ to about 21N and west of 110W due to a combination of the winds related to the trough and background NW swell. Seas of 5-7 ft in mixed SW and NW swell prevail across the remainder of the waters. For the forecast, the trough along the ITCZ will relatively quickly move westward, reaching 140W Sat night. Associated winds ahead of the trough will be fresh, occasionally and locally strong. Seas of 8-10 ft aided by NW swell will accompany the trough. Meanwhile, fresh to strong winds extending from a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will extend well southwest by Fri evening and reach to 110W by Sat. The cold front in the northwest waters will weaken and eventually stall by early Sat, while a new cold front pushes southeast of 30N140W by then. The boundaries will merge by Sat afternoon and then push toward Baja California through the weekend. Strong high pressure will build in the wake of the boundaries with fresh to strong trades covering most of the waters west of 120W by Sun night, and moderate to fresh trades elsewhere north of the ITCZ by then. Similar conditions will continue into early next week. NW swell of 8 ft or greater associated with the boundaries will mainly be across the northern waters through Fri night, then push and expand across most of the waters west of 110W, aided by the fresh to strong trades. $$ Lewitsky