000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020405 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Feb 02 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong cold front is expected to sweep across the Gulf of Mexico on Fri. Strong high pressure in its wake will build southward along the Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico leading to a significant tightening of the pressure gradient that will induce a strong gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale-force N winds are forecast to begin late Thu night before abruptly increasing to strong gale-force by Fri afternoon, continuing into early on Sat, with possible brief gusts to storm force. Seas will build quickly to near 20 ft Fri night into early Sat. Conditions will improve on Sun with winds diminishing below gale force on Sun and seas subsiding to below 8 ft by late Mon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northwest Colombia southwestward to 08N79W and to 05N93W. The ITCZ extends from 05N93W to 03N102W and to 07N115W, where it briefly pauses to the east of a trough. It resumes at 06N121W and continues to 06N136W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm N of the ITCZ between 121W-126W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Relatively weak high pressure is over the are, with the associated gradient maintaining gentle to moderate northerly winds across the Gulf of California. Seas over the Gulf are 3-5 ft. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are over the offshore waters of Baja California Sur and southwestern Mexico, while gentle N to NE winds are over the offshore waters of Baja California Norte. Seas over these waters are in the range of 5-7 ft, except 6-9 ft in a long-period NW swell S of Cabo San Lazaro. Strong to near gale-force N winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas of 5-7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, the strong to near gale-force N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will briefly diminish to fresh speeds Thu afternoon, then pulse back up to strong to near gale-force early on Thu evening and to gale-force late Thu night. These winds are forecast to abruptly increase to strong gale-force by Fri afternoon and continue into early Sat, with possible brief gusts to storm force. Along with these winds, seas are expected to build rather quickly to near 20 ft from late Fri into Sat. With strong high pressure N of the area shifting E from late Sat into Sun, this will allow for the gap wind gale conditions to diminish to strong to near gale-force into Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Latest ASCAT data shows fresh to strong NE-E gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region and over the Nicaraguan offshore waters region, extending westward to near 90W. Seas are 6-8 ft in the Gulf of Papagayo region and 5-7 ft over the Nicaraguan offshore waters. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are over the Gulf of Panama. They reach southward to near 06N. Seas of 4-6 ft are over these waters. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, the fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will prevail into early next week. Seas will be near 8 ft in the areas of strong winds. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds will pulse nightly through Thu morning. Large swell generated by an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec strong gale force gap wind event is expected to begin to propagate through the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters starting Fri night and begin to subside on Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1021 mb is centered near 31N125W, with a ridge extending southeastward to the southern part of Baja California Sur. High pressure covers the area N of 20N. A cold front is moving into the far NW corner of the area. Areas of rain along with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted N of of 28N and W of about 130W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure system and lower pressure in the deep tropics support fresh to strong NE to E trade winds, mainly south of 20N and west of 115W. In addition, a trough that extends from near 16N116W to 08N119W is assisting with the presence of the fresh to strong NE to E trade winds. Seas are 8-10 ft W of the trough to 120W and from 14N to 17N. Seas elsewhere over these waters are 8-9 ft due to a mix of NE and NW swell. Strong S to SW winds winds are ahead of the aforementioned cold front, mainly north of 27N and west of 133W. Seas in the waters described are 8-9 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail in the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds and seas of 8-10 ft will persist in the trade waters through the rest of the week. The aforementioned high pressure will slide east- southeastward toward northern Baja California through early Thu in response to the cold front that is presently entering the far NW part of the area. This cold front is expected to be preceded by fresh to strong S to SW winds and seas of around 8-10 ft through early Thu night as it reaches from near 30N131W to 26N136W and to 25N140W by that time. $$ Aguirre