000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010841
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Feb 01 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0815 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia to 
southern Panama and to 05N90W to 05N98W and to 05N107W. The ITCZ 
extends from 05N107W to 06N113W, where it briefly pauses east of 
a trough. It resumes west of the trough at 06N118W and continues 
to 07N130W and to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection 
is seen within 60 nm N of the ITCZ between 120W-126W, and within
60 nm of the ITCZ west of 131W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weakening frontal trough extends from extreme northwestern 
Mexico, south-southwestward to across Baja California Sur, 
continuing southwestward from there well into the central Pacific
waters near 20N. The earlier fresh to strong NW winds over the 
far northern Gulf of California have diminished to fresh speeds. 
Seas there are 4-5 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-4 
ft are present in the remainder of the Gulf of California.

Gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are over the 
offshore waters of Baja California. Seas over these waters are in
the range of 6-9 ft due to a long-period NW swell. Fresh to 
strong N winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas of 4-6 
ft. Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, moderate or weaker 
winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the frontal trough will continue to weaken as
it pushes across the rest of Baja California Sur and Gulf of 
California through this afternoon. Fresh to strong N winds in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish to slight today, then pulse 
back up to fresh to strong tonight into early Thu, diminish to
moderate to fresh speeds Thu afternoon, pulse back up to fresh 
to strong Thu night, and quickly increase to gale-force Fri
morning. These winds are then expected to reach strong gale force
from Fri afternoon into early Sat before they slowly begin to 
weaken. Seas are expected to build to near 19 ft late Fri into 
Sat.
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo 
region. They reach northward to the Nicaraguan offshore waters 
and westward to near 90W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Per 
latest ASCAT data, mostly fresh north winds are in the Gulf of 
Panama, with possible local winds to 25 kt. Per the ASCAT pass, 
these winds reach S to near 06N. Seas with these winds are 5-7 
ft. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere in 
the basin.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of
Papagayo region will prevail through the rest of the week and 
into the upcoming weekend. The fresh to locally strong N winds 
in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to mostly fresh speeds this
afternoon and change little through Sat. Large swell generated 
by an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap-wind event is 
expected to begin to propagate through the Guatemala and El 
Salvador offshore waters starting Fri night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is centered N of the area near 33N129W, with a 
pressure of 1024 mb. An associated ridge axis extends from this 
high center southeastward through a weakening frontal trough and 
to near 20N113W. The earlier described frontal trough stretches 
from Baja California Sur to 21N120W and westward to 21N130W and 
west-northwestward to near 22N140W. Moderate to fresh NE to E 
winds are behind the frontal trough. Seas over these waters are 
8-10 ft due to long-period NW to N swell. The pressure gradient 
between the ridge and lower pressure in the deep tropics is 
resulting in fresh to locally strong NE to E trade winds north of
the ITCZ to 22N and west of 117W. In addition, a trough analyzed
from near 15N114W to 07N116W is helping to sustain these winds.
Overnight ASCAT data depicted the location of this trough.
Satellite imagery reveals scattered moderate convection occurring 
north-northeast of the trough from 12N to 14N and between
111W-115W. Seas over these waters are 8-10 ft, with the seas 
outside the fresh to strong winds being induced by the NW to N 
swell. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail in the 
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the northerly swell over the northern waters
producing seas to 10 ft is forecast to continue southward over 
the next few days while slowly subsiding. Fresh to locally 
strong trade winds will continue over the next few days as the 
pressure gradient tightens, and as the trough currently along a 
position from near 15N114W to 07N116W tracks westward. The 
aforementioned 1024 mb high center near 33N129W will weaken, and
slide east-southeastward toward northern Baja California through
early Thu in response to a cold front that will be entering the 
far NW part of the area late this afternoon or early in the 
evening. This cold front is expected to be preceded by fresh to 
strong S to SW winds and seas of around 8-10 ft through early Thu
night as it reaches from near 30N131W to 26N136W and to 25N140W 
by that time.

$$
Aguirre