000 AXPZ20 KNHC 312111 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jan 31 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2105 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 03N97W and to 05N105W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N105W to 07N113W to 06N125W and beyond 06N140W. No deep convection noted near the monsoon trough or ITCZ. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A dissipating cold front extends south and southwestward from a 1017 mb low pressure in NW Mexico near 32N114W. The frontal boundary crosses the northern Gulf of California and the central Baja California peninsula, continuing into the waters of the eastern tropical Pacific. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show fresh to strong NW winds in the northern Gulf of California. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-4 ft are present in the remainder of the Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are occurring in the offshore waters of Baja California, with the strongest winds affecting the waters behind the dissipating cold front. Seas in the waters described are 5-10 ft, with the highest seas near 30N120W. Fresh northerly winds are evident in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, along with seas of 3-5 ft. Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the dissipating frontal boundary will continue moving across the Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California through tonight while weakening. The strong NW winds behind the front in the northern Gulf of California will diminish to moderate speeds in the afternoon. Winds will pulse to strong speeds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Wed and Thu morning. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event is forecast starting Fri, likely reaching strong gale speeds late Fri into early Sat. Seas will build to near 19 ft late Fri into Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are affecting the waters of the Gulf of Papagayo and extend into the Nicaraguan offshore waters and westward to near 90W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured the Gulf of Panama and depicted fresh to locally strong northerly winds as far south as 04N. Seas in the waters described are also 4-6 ft. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, the fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will prevail through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Pulsing fresh to locally strong N winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to moderate speeds Thu into the weekend. Large swell generated by an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap-wind event is expected to begin to propagate through the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters starting Fri night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong subtropical ridge is centered near 36N134W and extends southward into the eastern tropical Pacific. A dissipating cold front extends from the Baja California peninsula near 27N113W to 22N126W. Latest satellite-derived wind data show moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the frontal boundary. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds north of the ITCZ to 22N and west of 117W. Seas in these waters are 7-11 ft, with the highest seas occurring over the western waters and north of 20N. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail in the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the northerly swell over the northern waters producing seas to 11 ft is forecast to continue southward over the next few days and slowly weaken. Fresh to locally strong trade winds will continue over the next few days as the pressure gradient tightens. The aforementioned subtropical ridge that will be shifting E along 30N in response to a cold front that will be entering the far NW part of the area late Wed into early Thu. This cold front is expected to be preceded by fresh to strong S to SW winds and seas of around 8-10 ft. $$ DELGADO