000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311022 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Jan 31 2023

Corrected Remainder of the Area section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwestern Colombia
westward to southern Panama, then to the coast at 08N82W and 
continues to 07N88W to 05N95W to 08N106W and to 06N115W. The 
ITCZ extends from 06N115W to 07N125W to 07N131W and to beyond 
07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm N of 
the ITCZ between 110W-118W, also between 122W-126W and within 60
nm N of the ITCZ between 127W-129W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Satellite imagery shows weak low pressure of 1012 mb located 
about 60 nm west of San Diego, California. A cold front extends 
from this low southeastward to Baja California Norte. It 
continues well to the southwest of Baja California Norte. 
Moderate to fresh northwest to north winds are behind the cold 
front. Seas over these waters are in the 7-10 ft range due to a 
long period NW swell. Gentle to moderate northerly winds and 
seas of 4-6 ft prevail in the remainder of the Baja California 
offshore waters, except for moderate to fresh W to NW winds from 
26N to 27N. Satellite imagery also indicates broken to scattered 
low and mid-level clouds with possible shower activity offshore 
extreme southern California and northern Baja California Norte.

Moderate to fresh southerly winds are found in the northern Gulf 
of California. Seas in the waters described are 3-4 ft. Light to 
gentle winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail in the rest of the Gulf 
of California. Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, gentle 
to moderate variable winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move across 
the rest of the Baja California peninsula, and across the Gulf 
of California through Tue evening while weakening. Moderate to 
fresh NW to N winds are behind the front, with the fresh winds 
just west of the forecast waters. These winds will diminish to 
moderate speeds during the morning. Otherwise, high pressure in 
the wake of the front will shift E along 30N, becoming centered 
near 30N124W by Fri and remaining about stationary through Sat 
night. Winds will diminish and seas will subside during this 
time. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event is 
possible starting Fri. This event is expected to be on the high 
range of gale force winds, with some chance of winds reaching 
storm force.
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong easterly trade winds remain in the Gulf of 
Papagayo, and Nicaraguan offshore waters. An overnight ASCAT 
data pass nicely captured these winds in the Gulf of Papagayo 
region, including offshore Nicaragua. The strong winds extend 
westward to near 90W. Seas are 6-8 ft in the waters described, 
with the maximum seas in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate to
locally fresh N winds are in the Gulf of Panama, extending 
southward to about 03N. Associated seas are in the 4-7 ft range. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas 4-6 ft in S to SW 
swell prevail.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of
Papagayo region will prevail through the rest of the week and 
into the upcoming weekend. Pulsing fresh to locally strong N 
winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to moderate speeds Thu 
into the weekend. Large swell generated by upcoming Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gale force gap-wind event is expected to begin to 
propagate through the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters 
starting Fri night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected

The subtropical ridge remained located well northwest of the 
eastern tropical Pacific, extending weakly southeastward to the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Satellite imagery reveals a cold front 
that extends from weak low pressure that is within 60 nm 
west of San Diego, California southwestward to beyond the outer 
limits of the Mexican offshore waters at 25N118W and continues 
to 24N123W to 24N128W and northwestward from there to 30N138W. 
Fresh northwest to north winds are north of the cold front, 
except for winds becoming moderate to fresh NE to E in direction
north of the front and west of 130W. Seas over these waters are 
in the 8-11 ft range due to a long-period NW swell mixing with 
NE to E wind waves. Fresh easterly trade winds are present 
between the ITCZ and the cold front, and also from the ITCZ to 
26N west of 137W. Seas are 7-10 ft over these waters due to NW 
to N swell mixing with the waves generated by the easterly 
winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
prevail remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the NW swell propagating through the north- 
central and NE waters is expected to build seas to 12 ft near 
29N123W tonight. An area of fresh to strong NW winds is N of of 
27N and between 120W-125W, with seas of 8-11 ft. The moderate to 
fresh trade winds will continue through late Wed, however, an 
area of fresh to strong NE trade winds is expected to develop 
from about 09N to 17N and between 114W-128W as the gradient 
tightens between troughing that sets up roughly from near 16N114W
to 09N115W, and the aforementioned high pressure that will be 
shifting E along 30N in response to a cold front that will be 
entering the far NW part of the area at that time. This cold 
front is expected to be preceded by fresh to strong S to SW winds
and seas of around 8-10 ft.

$$
Aguirre