000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302140
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jan 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to 05N95W to 06N100W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N100W to 
07N108W and continues from 06N117W to 06N130W and beyond 
06N140W. A surface trough is analyzed from 08N106W to 04N115W.
Scattered moderate convection is evident from 04N to 09N and 
between 105W and 115W. Similar convection is occurring from 04N 
to 08N and between 124W and 137W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Satellite and surface observations show a weak low pressure off
southern California and a cold front extending southwestward 
into waters of the tropical eastern Pacific. The cold front is 
beginning to move across the northern Baja California peninsula. 
Moderate to fresh westerly winds are present in the offshore 
waters of Baja California Norte. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft 
with the highest seas occurring near 30N120W. Gentle to moderate 
northerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail in the remainder of 
the Baja California offshore waters.

Moderate to fresh southerly winds are found in the northern Gulf
of California. Seas in the waters described are 2-4 ft. Light to
gentle winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail in the rest of the Gulf
of California. Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, gentle 
to moderate variable winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, a cold front will sweep southeastward across 
the Baja California Norte region enhancing winds and seas N of 
Punta Eugenia today and tonight. Fresh to strong NW winds behind 
the front are expected to surge S of 30N and to N of 28N between 
120W-124W by tonight, but should be brief in duration. Otherwise,
high pressure in the wake of the front will shift E along 30N 
through Thu, with winds diminishing and seas subsiding. The next 
Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event is possible 
starting at the end of the week. This event is expected to be on 
the high range of gale force winds, with some chance of winds 
reaching storm force.
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong easterly trade winds remain in the Gulf of 
Papagayo, and Nicaraguan offshore waters. The strong winds extend
westward to 88W. Seas are 6-8 ft in the waters described, with 
the maximum seas in the Gulf of Papagayo region. A recent
altimeter satellite pass depict seas to 8 ft near 10N88W. Moderate
to locally fresh N winds are found the Gulf of Panama, extending
southward to about 03N. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas 4-6 ft in S to SW swell
prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds over the Gulf of 
Papagayo region will prevail through the rest of the week and
into the upcoming weekend. Pulsing fresh to locally strong N 
winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to moderate speeds Thu
into the weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge remained located well northwest of the 
eastern tropical Pacific, extending weakly southeastward to the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Satellite imagery depict a cold front that
extends from a low pressure near southern California, entering
the basin near 30N118W and continuing southwestward to 26N128W.
A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh
northerly winds are behind the frontal boundary. Seas in these
waters are 8-11 ft. Fresh easterly winds are also present north 
of the ITCZ to 29N and west of 130W. Seas are 6-9 ft in the
waters described, with the highest seas occurring in the 
westernmost waters. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas prevail remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, a new set of NW swell has begun to propagate 
through the waters south of 30N. The swell is expected to build 
seas to near 12 ft N of 28N between 122W-134W and merge with the
old NW swell in the westernmost waters. NW winds are expected to
increase to strong speeds over the extreme NE part of the area N
of 28N and between 120W-124W by tonight in the wake of the cold 
front that will quickly sweep southeastward across those waters. 
The moderate to fresh trade winds will continue through late Wed,
however, an area of fresh to strong NE trade winds is expected 
to develop from about 09N to 17N and between 114W-128W as the 
gradient tightens between troughing that sets up roughly from 
near 16N113W to 06N115W, and the aforementioned high pressure 
that will be shifting E along 30N in response to a cold front 
that will be entering the far NW part of the area. This cold 
front is expected to be preceded by fresh to strong S to SW winds
and seas of around 8-10 ft.

$$
DELGADO