000 AXPZ20 KNHC 301513 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Jan 30 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1505 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 05N95W to 06N100W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N100W to 06N115W to 06N120W to 06N130W and beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 09N and between 99W and 116W. Similar convection is present from 04N to 08N and between 123W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Latest surface analysis indicate that a dissipating cold front stretches southwestward from a low pressure near the Channel Islands of California and the frontal boundary is approaching northern Baja California. The pressure gradient between the approaching front and higher pressures over northern Mexico support moderate to fresh SW winds in the northern Gulf of California. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1-3 ft are found in the central and southern Gulf of California. The storm system near southern California is also inducing moderate to locally fresh westerly winds in the offshore waters of northern Baja California. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 4-5 ft prevail in the offshore waters of southern Baja California. However, funneling winds near the tip of Baja California sustain winds to locally fresh speeds. Moderate to occasionally fresh northerly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are evident off SW Mexico. Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, gentle to moderate variable winds and seas of 3-5 ft are prevalent. For the forecast, a dissipating cold front will quickly sweep southeastward across the Baja California Norte region enhancing winds and seas N of Punta Eugenia today and tonight. Fresh to strong NW winds behind the front are expected to surge S of 30N and to N of 28N between 120W-124W by tonight, but should be brief in duration. Otherwise, high pressure in the wake of the front will shift E along 30N through Thu, with winds diminishing and seas subsiding. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event is possible starting at the end of the week. This event is expected to be on the high range of gale force winds, with some chance of winds reaching storm force. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong easterly trade winds continue in the Gulf of Papagayo, and over the Nicaragua offshore waters. Seas are 6-8 ft with these winds, with the maximum seas in the Gulf of Papagayo region. The strong winds reach as far west as 89W. Fresh N winds are in the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to about 04N. Peak seas to around 7 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas 5-6 ft in S to SW swell prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region will prevail through the rest of the week. The fresh N winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to moderate speeds Thu and to gentle speeds Thu night through Fri night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The subtropical ridge is positioned well northwest of the eastern tropical Pacific and extends weakly southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the high pressure system and lower pressures in the deep tropics supports moderate to fresh winds mainly from the ITCZ to 20N and west of 95W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft, with the highest seas near 08N140W. Farther north, a dissipating cold front extends from 30N120W to 28N129W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted north of 27N and west of 120W. Seas in the waters described are 7-10 ft, with the highest seas near 30N128W. Gentle to moderate trade winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere across the discussion waters. For the forecast, NW swell over the far western part of the area will decrease in coverage this morning. However, a new set of NW swell has begun to propagate through the waters south of 30N. The swell is expected to build seas to 8-11 ft N of 28N between 122W-134W. NW winds are expected to increase to fresh to strong over the extreme NE part of the area N of 28N and between 120W-124W by tonight in the wake of a dissipating cold front that will quickly sweep southeastward across those waters. The moderate to fresh trade winds will continue through late Wed, however, an area of fresh to strong NE trade winds is expected to develop from about 09N to 17N and between 114W-128W as the gradient tightens between troughing that sets up roughly from near 16N113W to 06N115W, and the aforementioned high pressure that will be shifting E along 30N in response to a cold front that will be entering the far NW part of the area. This cold front is expected to be preceded by fresh to strong S to SW winds and seas of around 8-10 ft. $$ DELGADO