121 AXPZ20 KNHC 300939 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Jan 30 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 09N85W to 05N93W to 06N100W. The ITCZ extends from 06N100W to 08N106W to 06N120W to 07N132W and to 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 102W-106W, and within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 107W-110W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure is present over the west of the Baja California peninsula, while a surface trough extends across the Gulf of California. Fresh to strong southwest winds are over the northern part of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds are noted west of Baja California Norte, and off Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico due to long- period NW swell, 4-6 ft over the northern Gulf of California, and 1-3 ft over the remainder of the Gulf of California. For the forecast, a cold front will quickly sweep southeastward across the Baja California Norte region enhancing winds and seas N of Punta Eugenia today and tonight. The fresh to strong southwest winds over the northern Gulf of California will diminish by early this afternoon. Fresh to strong NW winds behind the front are expected to surge S of 30N and to N of 28N between 120W-124W by tonight, but should be brief in duration. Otherwise, high pressure in the wake of the front will shift E along 30N through Thu, with winds diminishing and seas subsiding. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event is possible starting at the end of the week. This event is expected to be on the high range of gale force winds, with some chance of winds reaching storm force. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE-E gap winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo region, and over the Nicaragua offshore waters. Seas are 8-10 ft with these winds, with the maximum seas in the Gulf of Papagayo region. The strong winds reach as far west as 89W. Fresh N winds are in the Gulf of Panama, with peak seas to around 7 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas 5 to 6 ft in S to SW swell prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region will prevail through the rest of the week. The fresh N winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to moderate speeds Thu and to gentle speeds Thu night through Fri night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure is located north of 20N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds N of the ITCZ to 23N and W of 125W. Seas over this area are in the 7-9 ft range due to a mix of long-period NW swell and NE wind waves. Gentle to moderate trade winds and seas of 6-7 ft prevail elsewhere across the discussion waters. For the forecast, NW swell over the far western part of the area will decrease in coverage this morning, however, a new set of NW swell has begun to propagate through the waters south of 30N. The swell is expected to build seas to 8-11 ft N of 28N between 122W-134W. NW winds are expected to increase to fresh to strong over the extreme NE part of the area N of 28N and between 120W-124W by tonight in the wake of a cold front that will quickly sweep southeastward across those waters. The moderate to fresh trade winds will continue through late Wed, however, an area of fresh to strong NE trade winds is expected to develop from about 09N to 17N and between 114W-128W as the gradient tightens between troughing that sets up roughly from near 16N113W to 06N115W, and the aforementioned high pressure that will be shifting E along 30N in response to a cold front that will be entering the far NW part of the area. This cold front is expected to be preceded by fresh to strong S to SW winds and seas of around 8-10 ft. $$ Aguirre