000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300404 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jan 30 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N92W to 07N100W. ITCZ axis extends from 07N100W to 06N117W to 05N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 102W-108W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 133W-136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure is present over the west of the Baja California peninsula, while a surface trough extends across the Gulf of California. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds are over the northern part of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds are noted west of Baja California Norte, and off Cabo Corrientes. Fresh to strong southwest winds are over northern part of the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, 2-4 ft over the northern Gulf of California, and 1-3 ft over the remainder of the Gulf of California. For the forecast, a cold front will move across the Baja California Norte region enhancing winds and seas N of Punta Eugenia Mon and Mon night. Fresh to strong southwest winds over the northern Gulf of California will diminish by early Mon afternoon. Fresh to strong NW winds behind the front are expected to surge S of 30N and to N of 28N between 120W-124W by tonight, but should be brief in duration. Otherwise, high pressure in the wake of the front will shift E along 30N through Thu, with winds diminishing and seas subsiding. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event is possible starting the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong to near-gale force NE-E gap winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo region, while fresh to strong E winds are over the Nicaragua offshore waters. Seas are 8-10 ft with these winds, with the maximum seas in the Gulf of Papagayo region. The strong winds reach as far west as 89W. Fresh N winds are in the Gulf of Panama, with peak seas to around 7 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas 5 to 6 ft in S to SW swell prevail. For the forecast, strong to occasionally near gale force NE winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region will prevail through late tonight, with fresh to strong wind speeds for the rest of the forecast period. The fresh N winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to moderate speeds Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure is located north of 20N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to 22N and W of 125W. Seas over this area are in the 7-9 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE wind waves. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 6-7 ft prevail elsewhere across the discussion waters. For the forecast, NW swell will subside through late tonight. A new set of NW swell propagate into the waters south of 30N starting late tonight and into Mon. The swell is expected to build seas to 8-11 ft N of 28N between 122W-134W. The moderate to fresh trade winds will continue through late Wed, however, an area of fresh NE trade winds is expected to develop from about 09N to 17N and between 114W-128W as the gradient tightens between troughing that sets up near 115W and the aforementioned high pressure that will be shifting E along 30N in response to a cold front that will entering the far NW part of the area. This cold front is expected to be preceded by fresh to strong S to SW winds and seas around 8-11 ft. $$ Aguirre