964 
AXPZ20 KNHC 291030 AAA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1030 UTC Sun Jan 29 2023

Updated Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0845 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W TO 05N82W TO 06N90W. ITCZ
extends from 06N90W to 06N102W to 04N113W to 05N127W to 04N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm north of the
ITCZ between 125W-132W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Updated

An overnight ASCAT pass shows strong north winds over the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec. Seas there are peaking to to just below 8 ft. 
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds are noted off Baja California
Norte, as well as the northern Gulf of California. Light to 
gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range 
over the open waters off Mexico, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of 
California.  

For the forecast, strong N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will
diminish today. A cold front will move across the Baja 
California Norte region enhancing winds and seas N of Punta 
Eugenia Mon and Mon night. Fresh to strong southwest winds will 
develop this afternoon over the northern Gulf of California 
today and diminish by early Mon afternoon. High pressure in the 
wake of the front will shift E along 30N through Thu, with winds 
diminishing and seas subsiding.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong to near gale-force NE-E gap winds prevail across the Gulf
of Papagayo region and Nicaragua offshore waters along with seas
of 8-10 ft as highlighted by an overnight altimeter data pass. A 
ship observation from last night indicated NE near-gale force 
winds at a position of near 10N86W along with 10 ft seas. The 
strong winds reach as far west as 95W. Moderate to locally 
strong winds and seas of 8-10 ft associated with both the 
Papagayo and Tehuantepec gap wind events are affecting the 
Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters. Fresh to strong N to 
NE winds along with seas to 8 ft, are across the Gulf of Panama. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas 5 to 6 ft in S to SW 
swell prevail.

For the forecast, strong to occasionally near gale force NE 
winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region will prevail through
through late tonight, then at fresh to strong speeds for the 
rest of the forecast period. Strong N to NE winds in the Gulf of 
Panama will diminish to fresh speeds this afternoon and to 
moderate speeds Thu. Swell generated from the earlier gale-force 
gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec across the El Salvador 
and Guatemala offshore waters will subside by this evening. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging prevails across the waters of 20N. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N
of the ITCZ to 22N and W of 125W. Seas over this area are in the
8-9 ft range in a mix of NW swell and NE wind waves. Gentle to 
moderate winds and seas of 6-7 ft prevail elsewhere across the 
discussion waters.

For the forecast, NW swell will slowly subside through tonight.
A new set of NW swell propagate into the waters south of 30N Sun
tonight into Mon. The swell is expected to build seas to 8 to 10
ft N of 28N between 122W-134W. The moderate to fresh trade winds
will continue through the middle of next week.

$$
Aguirre