000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280954
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jan 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly winds associated with
a strong surface ridge across the Gulf of Mexico are funneling
across the Chivela Pass in southern Mexico. The accelerated gap winds
are gale force up to 40 kt supporting seas to 14 ft in the 
region of Tehuantepec. Gale-force winds will persist through
later this morning, then fresh to near gale force winds will 
gradually diminish to moderate to fresh speeds through Sun 
morning. Currently, the fetch of fresh N to NE winds and seas 
greater than 8 ft reach 10N105W. This amplified area of winds and
seas is forecast to diminish tonight. Please read the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 06N77W to 03N83W to 06N90W to
03N100W. The ITCZ axis extends from 03N100W to 06N115W and 
continues beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 02N to 08N W of 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on an
ongoing gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

The pressure gradient across the Baja California region has
significantly diminish as strong high pressure over the Great
Basin has shifted eastward. Latest scatterometer data show mainly
moderate NE winds across the Baja California Norte offshore
waters where altimeter data show seas of 4 to 6 ft. In the Gulf 
of California, winds are light to gentle with seas to 3 ft.
Otherwise, light to gentle variable winds and seas to 7 ft in NW
swell are over the Baja California Sur and SW Mexican offshore 
waters.

For the forecast, the gale event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is 
expected to end later this morning. NW moderate to fresh winds  
are forecast to develop across the SW Mexican offshore waters 
late this afternoon and prevail in the Jalisco offshores through
Mon morning. A low pressure and cold front will develop off
southern California Sun night into Mon and move across the Baja
California Norte region enhancing winds and seas N of Punta
Eugenia through Tue. The pressure gradient will tighten again for
portions of SW Mexico Tue evening, supporting the development of
moderate to fresh winds across the offshore waters of Nayarit and
Jalisco.  

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong to near gale force NE-E gap winds prevail across the Gulf
of Papagayo region and Nicaragua offshore waters along with seas
of 8 to 12 ft. The fetch of strong winds reaches W to 93W.
Moderate to locally strong winds and seas of 8-10 ft associated
with both the Papagayo and Tehuantepec gap wind events are
affecting the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters.
Otherwise, fresh to strong N to NE winds are across the Gulf of 
Panama reaching S to 04N. Seas in this region are in the 7 to 9
ft range. Gentle variable winds and seas to 6 ft in SW swell
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, surface ridging extending S to the Caribbean will
force strong to near gale force NE winds over the Gulf of 
Papagayo region through the middle of next week. Seas to 11 ft 
will continue through Sat night. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds 
in the Gulf of Panama will increase to fresh to strong speeds 
tonight through early Sun with seas building to 8 ft. Meanwhile, 
swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind will continue to 
support seas to 11 ft in the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore 
waters through Sat night. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A strong high pressure centered well N of the area extends a 
ridge S to near 12N. This is maintaining a somewhat tight 
pressure gradient against the ITCZ, which continues to support 
moderate to fresh winds from 07N to 27N and W of 120W. Seas are 
8 to 9 ft, under the influence of NW swell. Otherwise, gentle to
moderate E to SE winds are occurring south of the ITCZ.

For the forecast, NW swell will slowly subside through the 
weekend. A new set of NW swell will drop south of 30N Sun night
into Mon, along with fresh winds. Meanwhile, the moderate to 
fresh tradewinds will continue through the middle of next week.

$$
Ramos