000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270920 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jan 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0850 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly winds associated with a strong surface ridge across the Gulf of Mexico are funneling across the Chivela Pass in southern Mexico. The accelerated winds resulting from this gap event have strong gale force up to 45 kt supporting seas to 20 ft in the region of Tehuantepec. Gale- force winds will persist into Sat morning. However, fresh to strong winds will gradually diminish through Sun morning. Currently, the fetch of fresh N to NE winds and seas greater than 8 ft reach 10N100W and is forecast to amplify and reach to 107W Sat before starting to diminish Sat night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 06N77W SW to 04N82W to 04N95W. The ITCZ axis extends from 04N95W to 07N110W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 79W and 87W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between 109W and 116W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on the gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A strong high pressure centered well northwest of the area extends a ridge SE across the Baja California offshore waters. Strong high pressure is also over the Great Basin thus supporting fresh to strong northerly winds and seas to 8 ft along the Gulf of California. These winds are moving across the mountain gaps of Baja California Norte and affecting the peninsula offshore waters N of 24N where seas are in the 5-9 ft range. Light to gentle variable winds and seas of 5-9 ft in NW swell are over the remainder Baja and SW Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, aside of the the gale event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, strong to near-gale NW winds will persist over the Gulf of California through this evening with seas building to 10 ft. Fresh to locally strong NE winds across the Baja California Norte offshore waters will diminish to moderate speeds late this afternoon. A cold front is forecast to move across the Baja California Norte offshore waters late Mon into Tue with building winds and seas N of Punta Eugenia. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong NE-E gap winds prevail over the waters of the Gulf of Papagayo region, with seas of 8 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh N winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Panama with seas to 6 ft. Elsewhere, gentle variable winds prevail with seas of 4-6 ft in mixed SW and NW swell. For the forecast, high pressure over the Caribbean will force fresh to strong NE winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region into next week, with near gale-force at times. Seas will build to 11 ft tonight through Sat night. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds in the Gulf of Panama will increase to fresh to strong Fri night through Sun with seas building to 6-8 ft. Meanwhile, swell from the developing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind will cause seas to build to 8-12 ft tonight into Sat night in the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Large NW swell of 8-11 ft is moving across our waters north of 03N and west of 108W. Seas are 5-7 ft in NW swell elsewhere, except mixed with SW swell east of around 110W. Meanwhile, strong high pressure is centered well north of the area. This high along with lower pressures along the ITCZ supports moderate to fresh NE-E winds north of the ITCZ and west of 115W. Gentle to moderate S winds are occurring south of the ITCZ and across the remainder of the waters north of the ITCZ. For the forecast, the set of NW swell will continue progressing southeastward through Fri. Seas will then slowly subside through the weekend. A new set of NW swell will drop south of 30N early next week behind a cold front, along with fresh winds. Meanwhile, the moderate to fresh tradewinds will continue through early next week. $$ Ramos