000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270357 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jan 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly winds associated with a strong surface ridge across the Gulf of Mexico are funneling across the Chivela Pass in southern Mexico. The accelerated winds resulting from this gap event have strong gale force up to 45 kt supporting seas to 18 ft in the region of Tehuantepec. Gale- force winds will persist into Sat morning. However, fresh to strong winds will prevail through Sun morning. Currently, the fetch of fresh N to NE winds and seas greater than 8 ft reach 11N and 100W and is forecast to amplify and reach 107W Sat before starting to diminish. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W SW to 04N95W. The ITCZ axis extends from 04N95W to 07N110W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 80W and 88W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 08N between 108W and 116W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on the gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A strong high pressure is centered well northwest of the area. Strong NW to N winds are occurring along the Gulf of California including south of the entrance with seas of 6 to 9 ft south of 30N. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail over the Baja California offshore waters, except locally strong downwind of Baja California gaps. Seas are ranging 6-9 ft. Light to gentle variable winds and seas of 5-7 ft are over the remainder SW Mexican offshore waters in NW swell. For the forecast, out of the the gale in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, strong to near- gale NW winds will persist over the Gulf of California through Fri with seas building to 7-10 ft. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds will prevail west of Baja California, except plumes of strong NE winds will occur downwind of gaps, filtering through from the Gulf of California. Conditions over Baja California offshore waters and the Gulf of California will improve Fri night, with the NW swell of 7-10 ft subsiding as well. A cold front may approach the Baja California peninsula Mon with building winds and seas from Punta Eugenia northward. A new set of large NW swell may arrive offshore Baja California Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong NE-E gap winds prevail over the waters of the Gulf of Papagayo region, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail across the rest of the offshore waters, with seas of 4-6 ft in mixed SW and NW swell. For the forecast, high pressure over the Caribbean will force fresh to strong NE winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region into next week, with near gale-force at times. Seas will build to 8-11 ft tonight through Sat night. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will develop in the Gulf of Panama tonight, then increase to fresh to strong Fri night through Sun with seas building to 6-8 ft. Meanwhile, swell from the developing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind will cause seas to build to 8-12 ft tonight into Sat night in the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Large NW swell of 8-11 ft is moving across our waters north of 03N and west of 108W. Seas are 5-7 ft in NW swell elsewhere, except mixed with SW swell east of around 110W. Meanwhile, strong high pressure is centered well north of the area. This high along with lower pressures along the ITCZ supports moderate to fresh NE-E winds north of the ITCZ and west of 115W. Gentle to moderate S winds are occurring south of the ITCZ and across the remainder of the waters north of the ITCZ. For the forecast, the set of NW swell will continue progressing southeastward through Fri. Seas will then slowly subside through the weekend. A new set of NW swell will drop south of 30N early next week behind a cold front, along with fresh winds. Meanwhile, the moderate to fresh tradewinds will continue through early next week. $$ Ramos