000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260227
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Jan 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong cold front moving 
across the Gulf of Mexico has begun to usher in a gap wind event
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. N to NE winds have already
increased to minimal gale-force in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and
will continue through Fri night. Winds will peak around 40-45 kt
on Thu and Thu night. Seas are forecast to build to 16-17 ft 
late Thu into Fri. 12 ft seas will extend southward to around 10N
and westward to around 100W by Fri. Conditions will gradually 
improve on Sat into Sun. Conditions will gradually improve on Sat
into Sun. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued 
by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from Colombia near 07N75W to across Panama to
Costa Rica near 09N84W to 04N94W. The ITCZ extends from 04N94W to
06N125W, then resumes west of a surface trough from 05N129W to 
07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N 
between 80W and 87W, and from 02N to 05N between 116W and 121W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on the
gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

A strong high pressure is centered well northwest of the area. 
Fresh to strong NW to N winds are occurring over the Gulf of 
California south of 30N including south of the entrance with 
seas of 4-8 ft south of 30N. Moderate winds and 1-3 ft seas are 
north of 30N. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail over the 
Baja California offshore waters, except locally strong downwind 
of Baja gaps. Seas are ranging 7-10 ft in NW swell offshore Baja 
California. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds 
prevail over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with 
seas ranging 4-7 ft in mixed swell.

For the forecast, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind
event, strong to near-gale NW winds will persist over the Gulf 
of California through Fri with seas building to 7-10 ft there.
Moderate to fresh N-NE winds will prevail west of Baja
California, except plumes of strong NE winds will occur downwind
of gaps, filtering through from the Gulf of California. Conditions
over Baja California offshore waters and the Gulf of California 
will improve by late Fri, with the NW swell of 7-10 ft subsiding
as well. A cold front may approach the Baja California peninsula
on Sun night and Mon with building winds and seas from Punta
Eugenia northward. A new set of large NW swell may arrive
offshore Baja California early next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE-E gap winds prevail over the waters of the 
Gulf of Papagayo region with seas of 5-6 ft. Elsewhere, gentle 
to moderate winds prevail across the rest of the offshore waters.
Seas across the Central American offshore waters range 4-6 ft. 
Seas are 6-7 ft off the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore 
waters due to a SW swell event. 

For the forecast, high pressure over the Caribbean will force 
fresh to strong NE winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region for the
next several days, with near gale-force at times. Seas will 
build to 8-11 ft Thu night through Sat night. Moderate to fresh N
to NE winds will develop in the Gulf of Panama by early Fri,
increasing to fresh to strong Fri night through Sun with seas 
building to 6-8 ft. Meanwhile, swell from the developing Gulf of
Tehuantepec gap wind event will cause seas to build to 8-12 ft 
from Thu afternoon through Sat night in the Guatemala and El 
Salvador offshore waters. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Large NW swell of 8-12 ft is moving across our waters northwest
of a line from near the Revillagigedo Islands through 10N117W to
the Equator around 128W. Seas are 5-7 ft in NW swell elsewhere,
except mixed with SW swell east of 110W. Meanwhile, strong high 
pressure is centered well north of the area. This high along with
lower pressures along the ITCZ supports moderate to fresh NE-E 
winds north of the ITCZ and west of 110W. Gentle to moderate S 
winds are occurring south of the ITCZ and across the remainder of
the waters north of the ITCZ.

For the forecast, the set of NW swell will continue progressing 
southeastward and reach as far south as the Equator and as far 
east as 100W through Fri. Seas will slowly subside through the 
weekend. A new set of NW swell may drop south of 30N early next
week behind a cold front, along with fresh to strong winds. 
Meanwhile, the moderate to fresh tradewinds will continue through
the weekend and into early next week.

$$
Lewitsky