000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251549 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jan 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico will usher in a gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning this afternoon. These N to NE winds will quickly become gale force tonight and prevail through Fri night. Winds will peak around 40 kt on Thu and Thu night. Seas are forecast to build to 16-17 ft late Thu into Fri. 12 ft seas will extend southward to 10N and westward to 100W by Fri. Conditions will gradually improve on Sat into Sun. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from the coast of Panama near 09N78W to 04N94W. The ITCZ extends from 04N94W to 05N121W. A trough stretches from 06N125W to 13N125W with the ITCZ continuing from 06N127W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N-11N between 119W-126W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-07N and E of 90W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on the gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A strong 1041 mb high pressure is centered well northwest of the area. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail over the Baja California offshore waters with seas ranging 8-10 ft in NW swell. Fresh to strong N to NW winds are occurring over the central and S Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate N winds prevail in the northern Gulf. Seas are 5-7 ft in the central and S Gulf with 1-3 ft in the N Gulf. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NW winds prevail over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. Seas are with seas ranging 4-7 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds will prevail over the Baja California offshore waters through tonight. NE winds will increase fresh to strong on Thu as high pressure builds over the U.S. Great Basin. Strong to near gale NW winds will persist over the Gulf of California through Fri. Conditions over Baja California offshore waters and the Gulf of California will improve later on Fri. Large NW swell impacting the Baja California offshore waters will spread southeastward to the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters tonight and Thu. The swell will gradually subside over the region by Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong easterly gap winds prevail over the waters of the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas of 6-7 ft. Elsewhere, light to moderate winds prevail across the rest of the offshore waters. Seas across the Central American offshore waters range 4-6 ft. Seas are 6-7 ft off the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters due to a SW swell event. Scattered thunderstorms are noted south of the Gulf of Panama. For the forecast, high pressure over the Caribbean will force fresh to strong NE winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region for the next several days. Seas will build to 8-11 ft Thu night through Sat night. Meanwhile, swell from the developing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will cause seas build to 10-12 ft by Fri in the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters. A combined S and NW swell event will produce 7-8 ft seas over the equatorial offshore waters Fri night through Sun. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are forecast with seas of 3-5 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Large NW swell of 8-11 ft is moving across our waters west of 110W. he forecast waters. Meanwhile, a 1041 mb high pressure is centered well north of the area near 47N128W. This high along with lower pressures along the ITCZ supports moderate to fresh easterly winds north of the ITCZ and west of 110W. Gentle to moderate S winds are occurring south of the ITCZ. Seas are 6-8 ft east of 110W mainly in SW swell. For the forecast, the set of NW swell will continue progressing southeastward and reach as far south as the Equator and as far east as 100W through Fri. Seas will slowly subside through the weekend. The moderate to fresh tradewinds will continue through the weekend. $$ Landsea