000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250317 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jan 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure will build across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico on Wed. This will support gale force winds across the Tehuantepec region Wed night through Fri night. Winds will peak around 40 kt on Thu and Thu night. Seas will peak near 16-17 ft Thu night and Fri. This gap wind event will produce a swath fresh to strong winds and 8 ft seas or greater that will propagate well SW of the Tehuantepec region and reach 99W by Thu night. Conditions will slowly improve Sat into Sun. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 05N77W to 04N87W. The ITCZ extends from 04N89W to 05N107W to 07N127W. A trough stretches from 12N127W to 06N130W with the ITCZ continuing from 06N131W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 128W and 133W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N and E of 88W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on the gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A strong 1037 mb high pres is centered well northwest of the area. Moderate N to NE winds prevail over the Baja California offshore waters with seas ranging 8-10 ft. In the Gulf of California, fresh to strong NW winds are noted in the central and southern Gulf with gentle to moderate winds in the northern Gulf. Seas are 5-7 ft with the highest in the southern Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds continue over the southwest and southern Mexico offshore waters with seas ranging 4-7 ft. For the forecast, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, moderate winds will prevail over the Baja California offshore waters through Wed night. Winds will increase fresh to strong on Thu as high pressure builds over the U.S. Great Basin. Fresh to strong northerly winds will continue over the Gulf of California through Fri. Conditions over Baja California and the Gulf of California will improve later on Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong easterly gap winds prevail over the waters of the Gulf of Papagayo. Seas are 6-7 ft in this area. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds prevail across the rest of the offshore waters. Seas across the Central American offshore waters range 4-7 ft. Seas are 7-8 ft off the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters due to a SW swell event. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse nightly in the Gulf of Papagayo. Seas will stay near 7 ft tonight and 8-11 ft Thu night through Sat night. Meanwhile, seas will build to near 12 ft by Fri in the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters as swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec expands into this area. A SW swell event will maintain 7-8 ft seas over the Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands offshore waters through Wed night. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are forecast with seas of 3-5 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... NW swell area is moving through a large portion of the forecast waters. The 12 ft seas extends N of 06N and W of 124W with seas peaking at 14 ft. Meanwhile, the pressure gradient has begun to relax as the 1037 mb high pressure near 45N131W continues moving away from the area. This high along with lower pressures in the deep tropics supports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds N of the ITCZ to 31N and west of 110W. The mixed swell found in these waters is producing seas of 8-10 ft. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are occurring south of the ITCZ. Seas are 6-8 ft in the waters described. For the forecast, the set of NW swell will continue progressing southeastward in the NW waters and reach as far south as the Equator and as far east as 100W through Fri. The swell will begin to subside by Sat. The moderate to locally fresh tradewinds will continue through the weekend. $$ AReinhart