000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240341 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Jan 24 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N81W to 05N88W. The ITCZ extends from 05N88W to 05N104W to 07N119W. A low pres is centered near 06N124W 1007 mb. The ITCZ continues from 06N126W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 14N between 114W to 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A strong 1035 mb high pres is centered well northwest of the area. Meanwhile, a cold front is moving southward over the Baja California offshore waters and the Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail over the Baja California Norte offshore waters with seas 7-10 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted over the Baja California Sur offshore waters with 5-7 ft seas. In the Gulf of California, fresh N to NW winds prevail over most of the Gulf behind the cold front with light winds in the southern Gulf. Seas are 3-5 ft with the highest in the central Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere over the southwest and southern Mexico offshore waters. Fresh to strong winds are prevailing over the Gulf of Tehuantepec and is expected to diminish over the next few hours. Seas range 4-6 ft over the southwest and southern Mexico offshore waters. For the forecast, a cold front will move across the Baja California area through Tue while weakening. Moderate winds will prevail over the Baja California offshore waters through midweek as well as persistent NW swell. Fresh winds will continue across the Gulf of California through Tue. High pressure building over Great Basin will support fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf of California Tue night through Fri. The next gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin Wed night and continue through Sat. Seas are forecast to build to 16 ft late Thu into Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong easterly gap winds prevail over the waters of the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate N winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail across the rest of the offshore waters with seas of 3-5 ft in mostly W to NW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse nightly in the Gulf of Papagayo. Seas will build to near 7 ft tonight and to 8-10 ft Thu night through Fri night. Meanwhile, seas will build to near 12 ft by Fri in the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters as swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec expands into this area. A SW swell event will build seas to 5-7 ft from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands through midweek. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are forecast with seas of 3-5 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... NW swell area is moving into the NW waters with the 12 ft seas extending N of 18N and W of 134W with seas peaking at 15 ft. Meanwhile, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the eastern tropical Pacific and lower pressures in the deep tropics continue to supports moderate to fresh easterly winds, N of the ITCZ to 31N and west of 115W. The mixed swell found in these waters is producing seas of 8-11 ft. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are occurring south of the ITCZ. Seas are 5-8 ft in the waters described. For the forecast, the swell reaching across most of the area will slowly subside. However, the new set of NW swell will continue progressing eastward in the NW waters and reach as far south as the Equator and as far east as 109W through Thu. The fresh tradewinds will diminish by Tue. $$ AReinhart