000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231553
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jan 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N81W
to 04N89W. The ITCZ extends from 04N89W to 03N100W to 08N119W. A
low pres is centered near 08N119W 1011 mb. The ITCZ continues
from 07N124W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 112W and 133W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N and E of
82W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A strong 1035 mb high pressure system centered well to the 
northwest of the offshore waters of Baja California extends a
ridge toward the Revillagigedo Islands. A cold front is moving 
across NW Mexico and extend into the northern Gulf of California 
waters. The pressure gradient between the high pressure system 
and lower pressures over the SW United States and Mexico sustains
fresh to locally strong NW winds north of 27N and west of 120W. 
The NW swell in the area described support seas of 8-13 ft. 
Gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft prevail in 
the remaining offshore waters of Baja California. 

Meanwhile, moderate to fresh winds are noted in the northern and
central Gulf of California, while light to gentle winds prevail
in the rest of the basin. Seas are 2-5 in the Gulf waters. Light
to gentle variable winds and seas of 3-6 ft are prevalent in the
rest of the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, a cold front will move across the Baja California 
area through Tue, producing fresh to strong NW winds and a set 
of NW swell west of Baja California. Strong northerly winds are 
also expected in the northern and central Gulf of California this
morning into Tue. High pressure building over Great Basin will 
support the continuation of fresh to strong northerly winds in 
the Gulf of California through Thu. The next gale force gap wind 
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin Wed night 
and continue through the forecast period. Seas are forecast to 
build to 16 ft late Thu into Fri.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong easterly gap winds prevail over the waters of 
the Gulf of Papagayo. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Light to 
gentle winds prevail across the rest of the offshore waters with
seas of 3-5 ft in mostly W to NW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse nightly in the
Gulf of Papagayo. Seas will build to near 7 ft tonight and to
8-10 ft Thu night through Fri night. Meanwhile, seas will build 
to 13 ft by Fri in the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters
as swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec expands into this area. A 
SW swell event will build seas to 5-7 ft from offshore Ecuador to
the Galapagos Islands through midweek. Elsewhere, light to 
gentle winds are forecast with seas of 3-5 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong northerly winds are noted across the waters N of 27N
between 120W and 128W. Seas in this area are up to 13 ft.
Additionally, a new swell area is moving into the NW waters with
seas up to 14 ft N of 26N and W of 139W. Meanwhile, the pressure
gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the eastern 
tropical Pacific and lower pressures in the deep tropics continue
to supports strong easterly winds, mainly south of 23N to the 
ITCZ and west of 115W. The mixed swell found in these waters is 
producing seas of 8-10 ft. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are
occurring south of the ITCZ. Seas are 5-8 ft in the waters 
described.

For the forecast, the swell reaching across most of the area will
slowly subside over the next few days. The new set of NW swell 
will continue progressing eastward in the NW waters later today, 
with seas peaking near 15 ft over these waters tonight. The fresh
to strong tradewinds will diminish early this week. The fresh to
strong winds off the Baja California offshore waters will 
diminish today. 

$$
AReinhart