000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230850
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jan 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0845 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N82W 
to 05N92W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N92W to 07N117W. A 1011 mb 
low press is centered near 08N119W. The ITCZ then continues from
06N122W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
seen from 05N to 11N and between 112W and 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A strong 1032 mb high pressure system remains centered well to 
the northwest of the offshore waters of Baja California and the 
ridge extends southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. A cold
front is moving across NW Mexico and extend into the northern
Gulf of California waters. The pressure gradient between the 
high pressure system and lower pressures over the SW United 
States and Mexico sustains fresh to strong NW winds north of 27N
and west of 116W. This was captured by a recent scatterometer 
satellite pass. The NW swell in the area described support seas 
of 8-13 ft. Gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft
prevail in the remaining offshore waters of Baja California. 

Meanwhile, moderate to fresh winds are noted in the northern and
central Gulf of California, while light to gentle winds prevail
in the rest of the basin. Seas are 2-5 in the Gulf waters. 
Moderate easterly winds are also present well south of Guatemala
and El Salvador due to the fresh gap winds emanating from the 
Papagayo region. Seas in the waters described are 4-5 ft. Light 
to gentle variable winds and seas of 3-6 ft are prevalent in the 
rest of the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of
Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, a cold front will move across the Baja California 
area today into Tue, producing fresh to strong NW winds and a 
set of NW swell west of Baja California. Strong northerly winds 
are also expected in the northern and central Gulf of California 
this morning into Tue. High pressure building over Great Basin 
will support the continuation of fresh to strong northerly winds 
in the Gulf of California through Thu. The next gale force gap 
wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to begin Wed
night and continue through the forecast period. Seas are forecast
to build to 16 ft late Thu into Fri.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh easterly gap winds continue to affect the
waters of the Gulf of Papagayo. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft.  
Moderate northerly winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama, along
with seas of 1-3 ft. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft, 
are evident elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse nightly in the
Gulf of Papagayo. Seas will build to near 7 ft tonight and to
8-10 ft Thu night through Fri night. Meanwhile, well south of
Guatemala and El Salvador, seas will build to 13 ft by Fri as the
swell region from the Gulf of Tehuantepec expands outward. A SW 
swell event will build seas to 5-7 ft from offshore Ecuador to 
the Galapagos Islands early this week. Elsewhere, light to gentle
winds are forecast with seas of 3-5 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the
eastern tropical Pacific and lower pressures in the deep tropics
continue to supports strong easterly winds, mainly south of 23N 
and west of 120W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed
these winds. The mixed swell area found in these waters is 
producing seas of 8-11 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and
seas of 5-8 ft prevail north of the ITCZ. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate southerly winds are occurring south of the ITCZ. Seas
are 5-8 ft in the waters described.

For the forecast, long-period NW swell will slowly subside
over the next few days. Meanwhile, a new set of NW swell will 
enter the NW waters later today, with seas peaking near 15 ft 
over these waters tonight. The fresh to strong tradewinds will 
diminish early this week. A cold front is moving SE across the NE
waters of the basin. Fresh to strong winds are found W of the 
front and forecast to diminish tonight.

$$
DELGADO