000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221511
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jan 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1445 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N82W to 05N93W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N93W to 06N114W. It continues from 04N121W to 
beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N
to 11N between 125W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A high pressure ridge extends west of the Baja California
peninsula, with surface troughing across the Baja peninsula.
Fresh to strong winds are noted over the Gulf of California, with
gentle to moderate winds west of the Baja California peninsula.
Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft
range over the Gulf of California and west of the Baja California
peninsula, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of 
California will diminish today. A cold front will move across the
Baja California area tonight into Mon. This will result in fresh
to strong NW winds and a set of NW swell west of Baja California
Norte tonight and Mon. Strong NW to N winds are also expected in
the northern and central Gulf of California Mon into Tue, once 
again filtering through Baja California gaps and across the Baja 
coastal waters. High pressure building over Great Basin will 
support the continuation of fresh to strong northerly winds in 
the Gulf of California through Thu. The next gale force gap wind 
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is possible midweek.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail over 
the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-5
ft, are found over the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds, and
seas of 3-4 ft, are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse nightly in
the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are forecast 
elsewhere through Thu with seas of 3-5 ft. A SW swell event will 
build seas to 5-7 ft from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos 
Islands early this week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails N of the area. The pressure gradient
between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong winds N of the
ITCZ to near 20N and W of 122W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted
elsewhere N of the ITCZ and W of 115W. Light to gentle winds are
elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range N of 05N and W of 120W,
with seas of 5-7 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, long-period NW swell will slowly subside
through early next week. A new set of NW swell will enter the NW
waters early this week, with seas peaking near 15 ft over these 
waters Mon night. The fresh to strong tradewinds will diminish 
early this week. A cold front will enter the northern waters late
today, with fresh to strong winds W of the front through Mon 
night. 

$$
AL