000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211605
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jan 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of NW Colombia near 
06N77W to 04N81W to 04N91W. The ITCZ extends from 04N91W to 
02N100W to 05N109W, then continues from 04N116W to beyond 
04N140W. A 1010 mb low pres is located near 05N112W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 01N to 06N E of 80W, and from
04N to 09N W of 129W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure over the Great Basin supports the
continuation of fresh to strong northerly winds along the Gulf 
of California where seas currently reach up to 6 ft. Strong winds
are funneling across the Baja California mountain passages and
extending along the Baja coastal waters. Moderate NE winds are
across the remainder Baja California offshore waters where seas
are in the 7-8 ft range. Light to gentle variable winds and seas
of 3-6 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will continue 
in the Gulf of California through Sun, with seas building to near 8
ft in the southern and central Gulf tonight. A cold front is 
expected to move across the Baja California area Sun night into 
Mon. This will result in fresh to strong NW winds and increasing 
NW swell west of Baja California Norte Sun night and Mon. Strong 
NW to N winds are also expected in the Gulf of California Mon 
into Tue, once again filtering through Baja California gaps and
across the Baja coastal waters. Afterward, strong high pressure
will build again in the Great Basin and will support the
continuation of fresh to strong northerly winds along the Gulf of
California through Thu. Otherwise, the next gap wind event in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec if forecast for late Wed. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are occurring in the Gulf of 
Papagayo, extending westward to 92W. Seas in these waters are 
5-8 ft. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted in the Gulf 
of Panama with seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle variable winds and
seas in the 3-5 ft range are elsewhere.

For the forecast, strong NE winds will pulse at night in the 
Gulf of Papagayo through tonight, then resume Mon night through
Thu. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast during the
daytime hours. Seas are forecast to be in the 5-7 ft range,
except today and Thu night where seas will build to 9 ft. 
Moderate to fresh N winds in the Gulf of Panama are expected to 
diminish Sun morning. Light to gentle winds are forecast 
elsewhere through Thu with seas of 3-5 ft. A SW swell event will
build seas to 5-7 ft from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos 
Islands early in the upcoming week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A strong high pressure system centered over the SW United States
extends southward into the eastern tropical Pacific waters. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the
deep tropics sustain fresh to strong easterly winds south of 21N
and west of 120W. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft, with the 
highest seas occurring in the areas of the strongest winds. Moderate
to locally fresh NE-E winds are present in the remainder of the 
basin to the north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Seas in the 
waters described are 5-7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas are evident south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough.

For the forecast, long-period NW swell supporting seas of 8-10 
ft will continue to propagate across the waters N of about the 
ITCZ and west of 115W through the weekend, getting reinforced by 
a larger set of NW swell early next week. That set will build 
seas to around 15 ft N of 20N along 140W by Mon evening. 
Otherwise, high pressure will dominate most of the forecast 
waters north of the ITCZ. The high pressure will strengthen some
during the weekend, keeping the fresh to strong trade wind flow 
N of the ITCZ to about 20N and W of 120W through Sun. These 
winds combined with the NW swell will help to build seas to up to
12 ft in the trade wind belt. Another cold front may drop S of 
30N late Sun into Mon with fresh to strong winds N of 28N between
118W and 128W through Mon night. The pressure gradient should 
weaken some thereafter allowing for winds to diminish slightly.

$$
Ramos