000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210308 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jan 21 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0305 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 06N77W to 03N93W. The ITCZ extends from 03N93W to 06N109W, then continues from 05N112W to 04N125W to beyond 06N140W. A 1011 mb low pres is located near 05N111W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 07N and W of 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1030 mb high pressure system is located near 28N130W and extends eastward into the Baja California offshore waters. A dissipating cold front extends across NW Mexico and the central Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are found in the northern and central Gulf of California, along with seas of 1-2 ft. Moderate northerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are occurring in the southern Gulf of California. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate northerly winds are present in the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas are 5-9 ft are noted in these waters. In the reminder of the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle variable winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned dissipating cold front is expected to dissipate later tonight. Behind the front, fresh to strong NW to NNW winds are expected in the Gulf of California tonight through Sun, with seas building to 9 ft in the southern and central Gulf by Sat night. These winds will filter through Baja California gaps to west of the peninsula. Looking ahead, another cold front is expected to move across the Baja California area Sun night into Mon. This will cause fresh NW winds and increasing NW swell west of Baja California Norte Sun night and Mon. Strong NW to N winds are likely in the Gulf of California Mon into Tue, once again filtering through Baja California gaps westward. The tail of this front will reach the Bay of Campeche Wed afternoon, possibly leading to the development of gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong easterly trade winds are present in the Gulf of Papagayo, extending westward to 89W. Seas in these waters are 5-6 ft. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are found in the Gulf of Panama and seas are 2-4 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through Sat night, building seas to around 7 ft. Fresh N winds will pulse nightly in the Gulf of Panama through Sat. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast elsewhere through at least the next several days with seas subsiding to 3-5 ft during the weekend. Fresh to strong winds should return to the Papagayo region Mon night into early Tue. A SW swell event will build seas to 5-7 ft from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The subtropical ridge is positioned near 28N130W and extends southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. A surface trough stretches along 27N between 116W and 125W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to occasionally strong (mainly in gusts) easterly winds, south of 23N and west of 110W. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 15N127W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, long-period NW swell supporting combined seas of 8-10 ft will continue to propagate across the waters N of about the ITCZ and west of 115W through the weekend, getting reinforced by a larger set of NW swell early next week. That set will build seas to around 15 ft N of 20N along 140W by Mon evening. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate most of the forecast waters north of the ITCZ ahead of a dissipating cold front moving across Baja California Norte and adjacent waters. The high pressure will strengthen some during the weekend, in the wake of that decaying front, bringing an increase in the trade wind flow N of the ITCZ to about 20N and W of 120W by Sat, lasting through Sun. These winds combined with the NW swell will help to build seas to up to 12 ft in the trade wind belt. Another cold front may drop S of 30N late Sun into Mon with fresh to strong winds N of 28N between 118W and 128W through Mon night. The pressure gradient should weaken some thereafter allowing for winds to diminish slightly. $$ DELGADO