000 AXPZ20 KNHC 202148 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jan 20 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 07N77W to 04N85W to 04N93W. The ITCZ axis extends from 04N93W to 04N103W to a 1012 mb low near 05N108W to 04N120W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 101W and 107W, and from 05N to 08N W of 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface ridging anchored by a 1032 mb high NW of the forecast wateres continues to extend across the Baja California offshore waters, thus supporting moderate to fresh northerly winds and 7 to 9 ft seas in NW swell. With the slight strengthening and expansion of the ridge, moderate NW winds have developed along the Gulf of California where seas are up to 3 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere along with seas to 6 ft in NW swell. For the forecast, a dissipating cold front extending from NW Mexico to Baja California Norte near 28N114W will move S this evening while it continues to weaken. Behind the front, fresh to strong NW to NNW winds are expected in the Gulf of California tonight through Sun, with seas building to 9 ft in the south and central Gulf by Sat night. These winds will filter through Baja California gaps to west of the peninsula. Looking ahead, another cold front should move from north to south across the Baja California area Sun night into Mon. This will cause fresh NW winds and increasing NW swell west of Baja California Norte Sun night and Mon. Strong NW to N winds are likely in the Gulf of California Mon into Tue, once again filtering through Baja California gaps westward. The tail of this front will reach the Bay of Campeche Wed afternoon, possibly leading to the development of gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 90W with seas to 6 ft. Moderate N winds prevail in the Gulf of Panama with seas to 4 ft. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere with seas of 6 to 7 ft in NW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through Sat night, building seas to around 7 ft. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere through at least the next several days with seas subsiding to 3 to 5 ft during the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong winds should return to the Papagayo region Mon night into early Tue. A SW swell event will build seas to 5 to 7 ft from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure ridging extends from the north-central waters to just east of the Revillagigedo Islands and covers the waters north of the ITCZ and west of around 108W. Moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds are noted N of the ITCZ to around 23N and W of 114W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft N of the ITCZ in mixed NE wind waves and NW swell. Moderate or weaker winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, long-period northwest swell supporting combined seas of 8 to 10 ft will continue to propagate across the waters N of about the ITCZ and west of 115W through the upcoming weekend, getting reinforced by a larger set of NW swell early next week. That set will build seas to around 15 ft N of 20N along 140W by Mon evening. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate most of the forecast waters north of the ITCZ ahead of a dissipating cold front, which extends from 29N115W to 30N127W. The high pressure will strengthen some during the weekend, in the wake of that decaying front, bringing an increase in the trade wind flow N of the ITCZ to about 20N and W of 120W by Sat, lasting through Sun. These winds combined with the NW swell will help to build seas to up to 12 ft in the trade wind belt. Another cold front may drop S of 30N late Sun into Mon with fresh to strong winds N of 28N between 118W and 128W through Mon night. The pressure gradient should weaken some thereafter allowing for winds to diminish slightly. $$ Ramos