000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200325
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jan 20 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 04N94W. The ITCZ
axis extends from 04N94W to 04N101W, then resumes west of a
surface trough from 04N111W to 06N130W to 07N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 07N between 132W and
137W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge is just west of the Baja California offshore waters,
leading to mainly moderate north winds, where seas are 7 to 9 ft
in NW swell. Moderate to fresh NW to NNW winds are in the 
southern and central Gulf of California. Seas are likely 3 to 5 
ft in this area. Gentle winds are elsewhere with 3 to 7 ft seas.

For the forecast, a dissipating cold front extending from near
Catalina Island, California to to 31N124W will move S tonight
while dissipating into Fri. Behind the front, fresh to strong NW
to NNW winds are expected in the Gulf of California Fri night 
through Sun, with seas building to 9 ft in the south and central 
Gulf by Sat night. These winds will filter through Baja
California gaps to west of the peninsula. The front will also 
bring fresh winds to waters west of Baja California. A pulse of
NW swell N of Punta Eugenia will keep seas there in 7 to 9 ft 
range through Fri. Looking ahead, another cold front should move
from north to south across the Baja California area Sun night 
into Mon. This will cause fresh NW winds and increasing NW swell 
west of Baja California Norte Sun night and Mon. Strong NW to N 
winds are likely in the Gulf of California Mon into Mon night. 
Winds could remain strong there into Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo and 
downwind to near 88W. Moderate N winds are in the Gulf of Panama. 
Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are generally in 
the 4 to 6 ft range, except SW of the Galapagos Islands where 
seas of 6 to 7 ft in NW swell are noted.

For the forecast, winds are forecast to increase to fresh to 
strong speeds tonight through Sat night in the Gulf of Papagayo,
building seas to around 7 ft. Winds will be moderate or weaker 
elsewhere through at least the next several days with seas 
subsiding to 3 to 5 ft during the upcoming weekend. Fresh to 
strong winds should return to the Papagayo region Mon night into
early Tue. A SW swell event will build seas to 5 to 7 ft from
offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure ridging extends from the north-central waters to 
just west of the Revillagigedo Islands and covers the waters 
north of the ITCZ and west of around 110W. Moderate to fresh NE
to E trade winds are noted N of the ITCZ to around 23N. Seas are
7 to 10 ft N of the ITCZ in mixed NE wind waves and NW swell.
Moderate or weaker winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail elsewhere. 
A weak 1010 mb low is near 06N106W along a surface trough
extending from 08N100W through the low to 04N110W. Numerous
showers are in the vicinity of these features S of 10N between
100W and 110W.

For the forecast, long-period northwest swell supporting combined
seas of 7 to 10 ft will continue to propagate across the waters 
N of about the ITCZ and west of 115W through the upcoming
weekend, getting reinforced by a larger set of NW swell early
next week. That set will build seas to around 15 ft near 30N140W
by Mon evening. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate most of 
the forecast waters north of the ITCZ ahead of a dissipating 
cold front which will try to drop S of 30N tonight into Fri. The
high pressure will strengthen some during the weekend, in the 
wake of that front, bringing an increase in the trade wind flow N
of the ITCZ to about 20N and W of 120W by Sat, and lasting 
through Sun. These winds combined with the NW swell will help to
build seas to up to 12 ft in the trade wind belt. The pressure
gradient should weaken some early next week allowing for winds to
diminish slightly.

$$
Lewitsky