000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191559
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Jan 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1510 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 06N96W to 06N115W.
The ITCZ continues from 06N115W to 06N140W. Isolated moderate
convection is noted from 03N to 05N between 83W and 88W, from 07N
to 09N between 102W and 108W, and from 06N to 08N between 127W
and 134W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing mainly moderate north winds. Moderate to fresh NNW
winds are in the southern and central Gulf of California,
extending S to Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle W to NW winds 
are seen across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. 
Recent altimeter data show seas heights of 8 to 9 ft offshore
Baja California. This is mostly due to NW swell, with period
around 14 seconds. Seas are 3-5 ft in the southern and central
Gulf of California. Offshore Michoacan and Guerrero, seas are 4
to 7 ft. From Oaxaca to the Guatemala border, seas in the
offshore waters are 3 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, a cold front extending from Big Sur, CA to
33N130W will move S, extend from the N Gulf of California to 
28N120W early Fri, then weaken as it reaches the S Gulf of
California early Sat. Behind the front, fresh to strong NW to NNW
winds are expected in the Gulf of California Fri night through
Sun, with seas building to 9 ft in the south-central Gulf by Sat
night. The front will also bring fresh winds to waters west of
Baja California, with locally strong winds funneling through the
gaps in the mountains. Long-period northwest swell will continue
to propagate over the offshore waters of the Baja California 
Peninsula today while subsiding to 6 to 8 ft. An additional pulse
of NW swell will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia by early 
Fri, keeping seas there in 8 to 9 ft range.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo and 
downwind to near 88W. Moderate N to NE winds are likely occurring
in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. 
Seas are generally in the 4-6 ft range, except SW of the 
Galapagos Islands where seas of 6 to 7 ft in NW swell are noted.

For the forecast, mainly moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail 
in the Papagayo region today. Winds are then forecast to 
increase to fresh to strong speeds tonight through Sat night, 
building seas to 7 ft. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere
through at least the next several days with seas subsiding to 3 
to 5 ft during the upcoming weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1025 mb situated near 31N133W has a ridge that 
extends to near the Revillagigedo Islands and covers the waters 
north of 15N and west of 110W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted
under the influence of the ridge, with an area of moderate to 
fresh NE to E trade winds from 07N to 24N between 120W and 140W, 
where seas are in the 7-9 ft range. The wind-waves are combining
with a long-period NW swell, which prevails over the waters 
north of 15N. Seas of 7-9 ft prevail north of 10N, and 6-7 ft 
seas are south of 10N.

For the forecast, long-period northwest swell will continue to 
propagate across most of the forecast waters today while slowly 
decaying, allowing for a subsiding trend of the seas. High 
pressure will dominate most of the forecast waters north of about
15N and west of 110W into Fri. A weak cold front will move across
the NE waters Fri into Sat. The high pressure will strengthen 
some during the weekend, in the wake of that front, bringing an 
increase in the trade wind flow N of the ITCZ to about 20N and W
of 120W by Sat and lasting through at least Sun. The next swell 
event is expected to reach the far northwest corner of the 
discussion area by Fri evening. 

$$
Hagen